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Jobs Online monthly report – June 2010

Overview

Jobs Online measures changes in job vacancies advertised on the main internet job boards.

Jobs Online shows that job advertisements have increased over the three months to the end of June 2010. The increase in job vacancies — in conjunction with other labour market data — indicates that employment prospects in the economy continue to improve and that the labour market is strengthening.

Key points

Jobs Online shows that in the three months to the end of June 2010:

Vacancies have increased consistently from a year ago (June 2009), when they were at their lowest point due to the recession. Since then, the number of advertised vacancies for skilled jobs increased by 33.6% while total vacancies increased by 36.9%.

Alongside positive employment growth, falling unemployment, and strong hiring intentions, Jobs Online shows that employment prospects in the economy are improving. Despite the improvement, the number of skilled job advertisements in June 2010 remains 30.6% lower than in March 2008, when the index was at its peak.

Commentary

Job advertisements increase further...

Jobs Online shows that the number of job advertisements grew strongly over the three months to the end of June 2010. Job advertisements increased consistently since June 2009, when they were at their lowest point.

Total vacancies increased by 9.4% in the three months to the end of June 2010 and by 36.9% since June 2009. Skilled vacancies[1] increased by 10.0% in the three months to the end of June 2010 and by 33.6% since June 2009.

These trends are shown in Figure 1 below.

Figure 1: Skilled Vacancies Index (SVI) and All Vacancies Index (AVI).

Figure 1: Skilled Vacancies Index (SVI) and All Vacancies Index (AVI)..

Data table for Figure 1

…indicating that job prospects in the economy continue to improve.

Jobs Online, in conjunction with above average employment intentions[2], shows that employment prospects in the economy have improved. This is echoed in the results from the latest Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) which showed the number of people in employment rose by 1.0% (or 22,000 people) over the March 2010 quarter.

While employment prospects continue to improve, we believe that the unemployment rate will remain elevated over coming quarters and may rise from its current rate of 6.0%, especially if the Labour Force Participation Rate increases[3].

Skilled job advertisements have increased in all regions…

Skilled vacancies increased by between 19% and 41% for all regions in the year to the end of June 2010.

Table 1 shows that growth was the strongest in Auckland (up 10.0%) and in the rest of the North Island excluding Wellington (up 10.1%). Vacancies rose by 9.1% in the South Island (excluding Christchurch), by 8.7% in Wellington, and by 3.0% in Christchurch.

Table 1: Skilled Vacancies Index (SVI) by region
Region Mar. 10 – Jun. 10 Jun. 09 – Jun. 10
Auckland 10.0% 40.8%
Wellington 8.7% 39.2%
North Island – other 10.1% 35.4%
Christchurch 3.0% 14.8%
South Island – other 9.1% 19.1%
Nationwide 10.0% 33.6%

 

Figure 2 below shows the long-term trends for Jobs Online by region.

Figure 2: Skilled Vacancies Index (SVI) by region

Figure 2: Skilled Vacancies Index (SVI) by region.

Data table for Figure 2

…and increased across all industries…

As shown in Table 2, the number of advertised skilled vacancies increased across all industries. The biggest increases in the three months to the end of June 2010 were in construction and engineering (up 14.9%); sales, retail, marketing & advertising (up 10.5%); and IT (up 10.4%).

Advertised skilled jobs increased by 8.3% in the health and medical industry, the last industry to show a recovery in advertised vacancies.

Table 2: Skilled Vacancies Index (SVI) by industry group
Industry group Mar. 10 – Jun. 10 Jun. 09 – Jun. 10
Construction and engineering 14.9% 28.0%
Sales, retail, marketing, advertising 10.5% 64.8%
IT 10.4% 47.7%
Hospitality 9.1% 51.5%
Health and medical 8.3% 2.7%
Education 7.2% 6.7%
Accounting, HR, legal, administration 4.0% 17.1%
Other 9.4% 43.0%

Figure 3 below shows the long term vacancy trends for industry groups.

Figure 3: Skilled Vacancies Index (SVI) by industry group

Figure 3: Skilled Vacancies Index (SVI) by industry group.

Data table for Figure 3

…with vacancies increasing across all skilled occupational groups

Advertised skilled vacancy growth was strong across all the major skilled occupational groups, as shown in Table 3 below. Job advertisements for technicians and trades workers showed the strongest growth over the quarter (up 13.0%), closely followed by professionals (up 10.6%). Annual growth was the strongest since the beginning of the series for all three occupational groups.

Table 3: Skilled Vacancies Index (SVI) for highest-skilled groups
Occupational group Mar. 10 – Jun. 10 Jun. 09 – Jun. 10
Managers 6.9% 39.1%
Professionals 10.6% 31.2%
Technicians and trades workers 13.0% 52.9%
All skilled occupations 10.0% 33.6%

 

Table 4 below takes a more detailed look at occupational groups, and shows that vacancies for almost all of the groups have exceeded their June 2009 levels. The percentages in Table 4 represent the change in the average number of job advertisements in the three months to 30 June 2010 from the average number in the three months to 30 June 2009.

Table 4: Change in advertised vacancies for selected skilled occupations
Occupational Group Sub group[4] Jun. 09 – Jun. 10
Managers Chief executives, general managers and legislators 1%
Specialist managers 37%
Hospitality, retail and service managers 23%
Professionals Arts and media professionals 5%
Business, human resource and marketing professionals 21%
Design, engineering, science and transport professionals 16%
Education professionals 1%
Health professionals -8%
ICT professionals 29%
Legal, social and welfare professionals 15%
Technicians and trades workers Engineering, ICT and science technicians 21%
Automotive and engineering trades workers 36%
Construction trades workers 89%
Electro-technology and telecommunications trades workers 20%
Food trades workers 41%
Skilled animal and horticultural workers 12%
Other technicians and trades workers 36%
Community and personal
service workers
Health and welfare support workers -11%
Sports and personal service workers 35%
Clerical and administrative workers Office managers and program administrators 55%
Personal assistants and secretaries 2%
Inquiry clerks and receptionists 53%
Other clerical and administrative workers -11%

Sales workers

Sales representatives and agents 17%

Note: this is not a trend series, and differs from annual comparisons for the Skilled Vacancy Index. It is not yet possible to create a seasonally adjusted series for this table, as some of these occupational groups are small and the series has been running for such a short time.

Methodology

Jobs Online includes two separate indices: the All Vacancy Index (AVI) tracks all job vacancies listed, and the Skilled Vacancies Index (SVI) looks closer at skilled occupations[5]. The Skilled Vacancies Index is broken down further by detailed occupation, location and industry type. The results are presented as an index that measures changes in the number of job advertisements.

Vacancies are highly seasonal: for instance, there is usually a substantial fall in the numbers of jobs advertised during December and then a small increase in February. To remove such seasonality, the Jobs Online data reported here has been converted to a trend series[6], allowing us to compare figures between months.

Jobs Online replaces the previous Job Vacancy Monitoring Programme, which gathered data on job advertisements placed in newspapers. Jobs Online allows us to access a considerably larger number of advertisements in a timelier manner, and better reflects the dominance of online advertising in the recruitment sector, particularly in terms of advertised vacancies for skilled labour.

For more on Jobs Online, see the Background and Methodology report at http://www.dol.govt.nzmethodology or email the Labour Market Skills Team at info@mbie.govt.nz.

 


[1] Skilled occupations are defined as skill levels 1-3 under the Australia New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations (ANZSCO) 2006. Skill level 3 is equivalent to an NCEA level 4 qualification.

[2] NZIER’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (June 2010), and the National Bank’s Business Outlook (June 2010).

[3] Labour Market Update (June 2010).
Available at http://dol.govt.nz/publications/lmr/lmr-labour-market-update.asp

[4] ANZSCO 2006 2 digit occupational groupings.

[5] Skilled occupations are defined as skill levels 1-3 under the Australia New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations (ANZSCO). Skill level 3 is equivalent to an NCEA level 4 qualification. Vacancies for occupations outside these groups are much less likely to be advertised and may not be representative of labour market changes.

[6]Trend series have had both the seasonal and irregular components removed, and reveal the underlying direction of movement in a series.