Jobs Online monthly report – May 2010
Overview
Jobs Online measures changes in job vacancies advertised on the main internet job boards.
Jobs Online shows that job advertisements have increased over the three months to the end of May 2010. The increase in job vacancies — in conjunction with other labour market data — indicates that employment prospects in the economy are improving and that the labour market is strengthening.
Key points
Jobs Online shows that in the three months to the end of May 2010:
- The number of advertised skilled jobs increased by 8.2%. Total advertisements increased by 7.5%.
- Advertised skilled vacancies increased across most regions. Growth was the strongest in areas outside of the three main centres.
- South Island vacancies (excluding Christchurch) grew by 12.2%
- North Island vacancies (excluding Auckland and Wellington) grew by 11.6%.
- Skilled vacancies increased across all industries. Growth was the strongest in the following industries.
- Construction and engineering vacancies grew by 17.1%.
- Sales, retail, marketing and advertising vacancies grew by 9.8%.
- IT vacancies grew by 9.0%.
On an annual basis, the number of advertised vacancies for skilled jobs was up 24.0%. Job advertisements have increased every month since June 2009, when they were at their lowest point: skilled vacancies by 26.6% and total vacancies by 29.7%.
Alongside positive employment growth, falling unemployment, and strong hiring intentions, Jobs Online shows that job prospects in the economy are improving. Despite the improvement, the number of skilled job advertisements in May 2010 remains 34.2% lower than in March 2008, when the index was at its peak.
Commentary
Job advertisements increase further...
Jobs Online shows that the number of job advertisements grew strongly over the three months to the end of May 2010. Job advertisements have increased every month since June 2009, when they were at their lowest point.
Total vacancies have increased by 7.5% in the three months to the end of May 2010 and by 29.7% since June 2009. Skilled vacancies [1] have increased by 8.2% in the three months to the end of May 2010 and by 26.6% since June 2009.
These trends are shown in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1: Skilled Vacancies Index (SVI) and All Vacancies Index (AVI)
Trend series (May 2007=100)
…indicating that the labour market has reached a turning point
Jobs Online, in conjunction with rising employment intentions [2], shows that employment prospects in the economy have improved. This is echoed in the results from the latest Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) which showed the number of people in employment rose by 1.0% (or 22,000 people) over the March 2010 quarter.
While employment prospects continue to improve, we believe that the unemployment rate will remain elevated over coming quarters and may rise from its current rate of 6.0% [3].
Skilled job advertisements have increased in most regions…
Table 1 shows that advertised skilled vacancies increased across most regions in the three months to the end of May 2010. Growth was the strongest in areas outside of the three main centres: up 12.2% in the South Island (outside of Christchurch) and up 11.6% in the North Island (outside of Auckland and Wellington). Vacancies in Wellington rose by 11.3% and in Auckland by 8.6%. Christchurch experienced a slight decline of 1.0%.
Skilled vacancies increased for all regions in the year to the end of May 2010.
| Region | Feb 10 – May 10 | May 09 – May 10 |
|---|---|---|
| Auckland | 8.6% | 29.8% |
| Wellington | 11.3% | 32.3% |
| North Island - other | 11.6% | 30.0% |
| Christchurch | -1.0% | 6.1% |
| South Island - other | 12.2% | 16.4% |
| Nationwide | 8.2% | 24.0% |
Figure 2 below shows the long-term trends for Jobs Online by region.
Figure 2: Skilled Vacancies Index (SVI) by region
Trend series (May 2007=100)
…and increased across all industries…
As shown in Table 2, the number of advertised skilled vacancies increased across all industries in the three months to the end of May 2010. The biggest increases were in construction and engineering (up 17.1%); sales, retail, marketing & advertising (up 9.8%); and IT (up 9.0%).
| Industry group | Feb. 10 – May 10 | May 09 – May 10 |
|---|---|---|
| Construction and engineering | 17.1% | 15.1% |
| Sales, retail, marketing, advertising | 9.8% | 61.7% |
| IT | 9.0% | 35.2% |
| Hospitality | 8.2% | 48.3% |
| Health and medical | 6.3% | -1.5% |
| Education | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Accounting, HR, legal, administration | 2.6% | 8.5% |
| Other | 7.7% | 33.9% |
Figure 3 below shows the long term vacancy trends of industry groups.
Figure 3: Skilled Vacancies Index (SVI) by industry group
Trend series (May 2007=100)
…with vacancies increasing across all skilled occupational groups
Advertised skilled vacancy growth over the three months to the end of May 2010 was strong across all the major skilled occupation groups, as shown in Table 3 below. Job advertisements for technicians and trades workers showed the strongest growth over the quarter (up 12.9%), closely followed by professionals (up 8.4%). Annual growth was the strongest since the beginning of the series for all three occupations.
| Occupation group | Feb 10 – May 10 | May 09 – May 10 |
|---|---|---|
| Managers | 6.9% | 36.6% |
| Professionals | 8.4% | 20.1% |
| Technicians and trades workers | 12.9% | 40.6% |
| All skilled occupations | 8.2% | 24.0% |
Table 4 below takes a more detailed look at occupational groups, and shows that vacancies for almost all of the groups have exceeded their May 2009 levels. The percentages in Table 4 represent the change in the average number of job advertisements in the three months to 31 May 2010 from the average number in the three months to 31 May 2009.
| Occupational Group | 2-Digit Occupation | May 09 – May 10 |
|---|---|---|
| Managers | Chief executives, general managers and legislators | 14% |
| Specialist managers | 39% | |
| Hospitality, retail and service managers | 26% | |
| Professionals | Arts and media professionals | 14% |
| Business, human resource and marketing professionals | 26% | |
| Design, engineering, science and transport professionals | 15% | |
| Education professionals | 14% | |
| Health professionals | -7% | |
| ICT professionals | 22% | |
| Legal, social and welfare professionals | 12% | |
| Technicians and trades workers | Engineering, ICT and science technicians | 29% |
| Automotive and engineering trades workers | 33% | |
| Construction trades workers | 101% | |
| Electro-technology and telecommunications trades workers | 12% | |
| Food trades workers | 40% | |
| Skilled animal and horticultural workers | 22% | |
| Other technicians and trades workers | 35% | |
| Community and personal service workers | Health and welfare support workers | -2% |
| Sports and personal service workers | 25% | |
| Clerical and administrative workers | Office managers and program administrators | 55% |
| Personal assistants and secretaries | 7% | |
| Inquiry clerks and receptionists | 81% | |
| Other clerical and administrative workers | 2% | |
| Sales workers | Sales representatives and agents | 23% |
Methodology
Jobs Online includes two separate indices: the All Vacancy Index (AVI) tracks all job vacancies listed, and the Skilled Vacancies Index (SVI) looks closer at skilled occupations [4]. The Skilled Vacancies Index is broken down further by detailed occupation, location and industry type. The results are presented as an index that measures changes in the number of job advertisements.
Vacancies are highly seasonal: for instance, there is usually a substantial fall in the numbers of jobs advertised during December and then a small increase in February. To remove such seasonality, the Jobs Online data reported here has been converted to a trend series [5], allowing us to compare figures between months.
Jobs Online replaces the previous Job Vacancy Monitoring Programme, which gathered data on job advertisements placed in newspapers. Jobs Online allows us to access a considerably larger number of advertisements in a timelier manner, and better reflects the dominance of online advertising in the recruitment sector, particularly in terms of advertised vacancies for skilled labour.
For more on Jobs Online, see the Background and Methodology report at http://www.dol.govt.nzmethodology/ or email the Labour Market Skills Team at info@dol.govt.nz.
[1] Skilled occupations are defined as skill levels 1-3 under the Australia New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations (ANZSCO). Skill level 3 is equivalent to an NCEA level 4 qualification.
[2] NZIER’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion and the National Bank’s Business Outlook.
[3] See Department of Labour, May 2010 Labour Market update: http://dol.govt.nz/publications/lmr/lmr-labour-market-update.asp
[4] Skilled occupations are defined as skill levels 1-3 under the Australia New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations (ANZSCO). Skill level 3 is equivalent to an NCEA level 4 qualification. Vacancies for occupations outside these groups are much less likely to be advertised and may not be representative of labour market changes.
[5] Trend series have had both the seasonal and irregular components removed, and reveal the underlying direction of movement in a series.
