JVMP Reports
June 2006
Automotive Electrician :
OCCUPATIONAL SKILL SHORTAGE ASSESSMENT
2004 Situation: Genuine skill shortage
Current Situation: Genuine skill shortage
Short-term Outlook: Genuine skill shortage
Executive Summary
Results from the 2005 Survey of Employers who have Recently Advertised suggest employers have had considerable difficulty in filling automotive electrician positions in New Zealand . Only 29% of positions were filled within ten weeks of advertising and there was an average of 1.4 suitable applicants per automotive electrician vacancy. This report considers these survey results in the context of trends in the demand for and supply of automotive electricians.
| Fill Rate |
Average Number of Suitable Applicants | |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive Electricians | 29% | 1.4 |
| All Trades Surveyed | 37% | 1.0 |
Demand (as measured by employment) for automotive electricians grew by 1.9% per annum between 1996 and 2001, in a period where negative growth was recorded for motor mechanics and all trades. Growth in the demand for automotive electricians has been driven by a number of factors including: growth in the number of registered cars, ageing of the vehicle fleet, and an increase in the use and sophistication of electronic equipment in vehicles. These factors are likely to have resulted in continued growth in demand since 2001.
The supply of newly qualified automotive electricians has increased from 21 in 2001 to 51 in 2005. This equates to a training rate of 3.5% in 2005 which is higher than the New Zealand average for all trades surveyed (3.3%). New enrolments have increased from 72 in 2001 to 126 in 2005, suggesting a likely increase in future numbers of trainees achieving the automotive electrician qualification. About ten automotive electricians retire each year.
Due to the on-going disparity between the levels of supply and demand, the Department of Labour has assessed the auto electrician occupation as experiencing a genuine skill shortage .
Demand for automotive electricians will continue to grow over the next few years on the back of strong growth in the number of cars being registered and the increasing electrical and electronic sophistication in the installation, maintenance and repair requirements of vehicles . While the number of trainees achieving the relevant National Certificate qualifications has been increasing over the last few years, supply through training and migration will struggle to eliminate the current shortfall of automotive electricians. The Department therefore foresees shortages persisting over the short-term, although higher training rates should result in some easing.
Introduction
The purpose of this report is to investigate skill shortages for automotive electricians in New Zealand.
The following section presents key findings from the Department of Labour’s (the Department’s) Survey of Employers who have Recently Advertised (SERA) . This survey provides an indication of employer’s success in filling advertised vacancies for automotive electricians as well as other information on their recruiting experiences. The next two sections investigate trends in the demand for, and supply of, automotive electricians. The penultimate section presents some of the issues that arise from the matching of demand and supply in the labour market, such as wage rates. Finally, the ‘Assessment’ section considers all the information presented in the report and provides a view on whether the occupation is in shortage, and if so, the type of shortage being experienced. A short-term outlook for the shortage situation is also offered.
Further background to this occupational report, including a discussion of the methodology; a glossary of terms; and an overview of the Department of Labour’s (the Department’s) Survey of Employers who have Recently Advertised (SERA), including the survey questionnaire, can be found in the ‘Background and technical note’.
Automotive Electricians in New Zealand
Automotive electricians are classified as transport electricians (code 71312 in the New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations). They install, maintain and repair electrical wiring and electrical/electronic components and systems in vehicles.
The Department estimates that there were approximately 1,470 automotive electricians employed in New Zealand in 2005. Census figures indicate that almost the entire automotive electrician workforce is male (99%) and is employed full time (99%).
Note on Occupational Classification
Household Labour Force Survey and External Migration data from Statistics New Zealand are only available at the 3-digit occupational level, with automotive electricians falling in the 3-digit category ‘Electricians’. As automotive electricians comprise only a very small proportion of this broader group (9% in the 2001 Census), trends in employment and migration cannot be assessed through these sources.
Survey of Employers who have Recently Advertised
This section presents the key SERA findings of employers’ experiences in recruiting automotive electricians.
The SERA allows the Department to gain insights into skill shortages by investigating how difficult it is for employers to fill vacancies. A ‘fill rate’ is calculated for each occupation – this being the proportion of vacancies included in the SERA sample which were filled with an adequately qualified and experienced person within ten weeks of advertising. Occupations with fill rates lower than 80% are typically regarded as being in shortage, while fill rates lower than 40% usually indicate that the occupation is in acute shortage.
| Number of Employers | Number of Vacancies | Fill Rate 1 | Average Number of Suitable Applicants per Vacancy 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automotive Electricians | 17 | 21 | 29% | 1.4 |
| All Trades Surveyed | 885 | 1480 | 37% | 1.0 |
1 The ‘All Trades Surveyed’ fill rate and average number of suitable applicants per vacancy figures were both weighted to compensate for any under or over sampling of individual trade worker occupations in the 2005 survey.
Results from the 2005 SERA show that only 29% of automotive electrician vacancies included in the survey were filled within ten weeks of being advertised. While the fill rate for automotive electricians has increased from 15% in 2004, it still remains very low, and is below the fill rate for all surveyed trade occupations (37%). There was an average of 1.4 suitable applicants for each automotive electrician vacancy compared with an average of 1.0 for all trade occupations surveyed.
Demand for Automotive Electricians
This section investigates trends in the demand for automotive electricians and the factors underlying these trends. Demand is measured by the number of automotive electricians required by employers at current wage rates.
Historical Demand
Employment of automotive electricians grew by 0.7% per annum between 1991 and 2001 according to the Census (see Table 3). This contrasts with negative employment growth for motor mechanics (-1.0% per annum) and all trades (-0.2% per annum) over the same period. Between 1996 and 2001, employment of automotive electricians grew by 1.9% per annum which was higher than the average for all occupations (1.2%).
| Annual Growth in Employment | 1991-1996 | 1996-2001 | 1991-2001 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Automotive Electricians | -0.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Motor Mechanics | -0.9% | -1.1% | -1.0% |
| All Trades | 0.0% | -0.4% | -0.2% |
| All Occupations | 3.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% |
The demand for automotive electricians is closely linked to the number of registered cars, the age of these cars, and the increasing electrical and electronic sophistication of vehicles (which will thus require greater installation, maintenance and repair).
Data from Land Transport New Zealand (LTNZ) shows a steady increase in the number of cars in New Zealand (see Figure 1). The number of registered cars has increased on average by 3.6% per annum since 1999. LTNZ data also shows cars on New Zealand roads are becoming older with the average age of cars increasing to 11. 8 years in 2004, up from 11.3 years in 1999.
Together, these factors have increased the demand for automotive electricians. Growing employment for automotive electricians during a period when employment of motor mechanics declined is reflective of the increasing need for electrical and electronic diagnostic, installation, maintenance and repair skills by automotive businesses.
Figure 1: Total Number of Cars in New Zealand Fleet
Future Demand
Demand for automotive electricians is likely to continue to grow over the short- term. The main factors influencing this growth include:
- An increasing number of people in paid employment and strong economic growth has lead to an increasing number of vehicles on the road – motor vehicle sales have grown by 7% per annum between 2000 and 20051; and
- Continuing technological developments, which will increase the electrical and electronic components and systems in vehicles. Electronic equipment affects all areas of a vehicle’s operation and increasingly there will be greater reliance on electronic management systems.
Supply of Automotive Electricians
This section investigates the various sources contributing to the supply of automotive electricians. Supply is measured by the number of people willing and able to work as automotive electricians at current wage rates.
Training - National Certificate (Level 4) Qualifications and Equivalent
This section investigates the growth in supply of fully qualified automotive electricians through training. It considers two sources of supply:
- The award of the National Certificate in Motor Industry (Automotive Electrical Engineering) Level 4 by the New Zealand Motor Industry Training Organisation Incorporated (MITO). This is the nationally recognised qualification for automotive electricians which is designed by MITO to meet the needs of employers of automotive electricians. It takes trainees an average of three years to attain the qualification.
- The award of the National Certificate in Motor Industry (Automotive Electrical Engineering) Level 4 by other providers such as polytechnics.
There were no non-national certificate qualifications at the equivalent level of the National Certificate Level 4 awarded over this time period.
Table 5 shows that the vast majority of the National Certificate Level 4 qualifications are awarded by MITO . The number of trainees achieving the National Certificate was 51 in 2005, an increase of 30 since 2001. Table 4 shows that new enrolments for this qualification have increased steadily from 72 to 126 between 2001 and 2005 suggesting an increase in future achievements of the National Certificate is likely.
| Total Enrolled |
New Enrolments |
|
|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 222 | 70 |
| 2002 | 207 | 72 |
| 2003 | 204 | 84 |
| 2004 | 238 | 85 |
| 2005 | 213 | 98 |
| Total Enrolled |
New Enrolments |
|
|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 6 | 2 |
| 2002 | 21 | 8 |
| 2003 | 29 | 13 |
| 2004 | 38 | 16 |
| 2005 | 49 | 28 |
| Total Enrolled |
New Enrolments |
|
|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 228 | 72 |
| 2002 | 228 | 80 |
| 2003 | 233 | 97 |
| 2004 | 276 | 101 |
| 2005 | 262 | 126 |
| National Certificate in Motor Industry (Automotive Electrical Engineering) Level 4 ( MITO ) | National Certificate in Motor Industry (Automotive Electrical Engineering) Level 4 (Other Providers) | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 20 | 1 | 21 |
| 2002 | 20 | 3 | 23 |
| 2003 | 27 | 4 | 31 |
| 2004 | 36 | 6 | 42 |
| 2005 | 45 | 6 | 51 |
The training rate for automotive electricians is given in Table 6. This indicator provides an approximate measure of the rate at which the supply of fully qualified automotive electricians can potentially grow through training . The training rate is calculated by expressing the number of trainees achieving the relevant qualification as a percentage of total employment in that occupation. The training rate for automotive electricians has increased in the last three years from 1.5% in 2002 to 3.5% in 2005 . The training rate for automotive electricians is higher than the average training rate of 3.3% for all trades analysed by the Department. By way of comparison, the average training rate for automotive electricians in New South Wales , Australia 2 in the three years to June 2005 was 4.3% - higher than the training rate in New Zealand over the last three years.
| Automotive Electricians |
All Trades3 |
|
|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 1.5% | 2.0% |
| 2002 | 1.5% | 2.2% |
| 2003 | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| 2004 | 3.0% | 2.7% |
| 2005 | 3.5% | 3.3% |
Retirements
Based on 2001 Census data, it is estimated that approximately 0.7% of the automotive electrician workforce retires each year (assuming a retirement age of 65). This equates to about ten automotive electricians per annum. This is lower than the average retirement rate for all trade occupations (1.3%). Census data shows an ageing of automotive electricians occurred between 1991 and 2001 (see Figure 2). The percentage of automotive electricians under 35 years of age decreased from 59% in 1991 to 47% in 2001, while the percentage of automotive electricians over 40 increased to 40% in 2001, up from 29% in 1991. As the automotive electrician workforce ages, the number of automotive electricians retiring each year will increase.
Figure 2: Age Profile of Automotive Electricians, 1991-2001.
Source: Census of Population and Dwellings, Statistics New Zealand
Data for Figure 2
Occupational Detachment4
Employers were asked if they thought automotive electricians left the occupation to go and do something different more or less than in other occupations. Of the 13 employers who answered this question, six thought they left at about the same rate as in other occupations, four thought they left at a higher rate, and three thought they left at a lower rate.
This suggests that occupational detachment may have an impact on supply for this occupation, with some employers saying this may be because of factors such as dirty working conditions.
Assessment
This section considers all the information presented in this report on employers’ recruiting experiences, supply and demand trends, and matching issues and offers a view on whether there is a shortage of automotive electricians and the type of shortage. A short-term outlook for the shortage situation is also offered.
Demand for automotive electricians has grown moderately in recent years due to growth in the number of registered cars, a rising average age for cars and an increase in the use and sophistication of electronic equipment in vehicles. In contrast to the growth in demand, the supply of automotive electricians has grown slowly. In the early 2000’s supply through training was potentially growing by less than 2%, although this had risen to 3.5% by 2005. Supply was probably complemented by a small amount of net inward migration but occupational detachment would have resulted in a loss of supply. As demand growth has exceeded supply growth, an acute shortage of automotive electricians has resulted. This is reflected by the low fill rate of 29%. This disparity that has developed as demand has outgrown supply indicates that the automotive electrician shortage is a genuine skill shortage.
Demand for automotive electricians will continue to grow over the next few years on the back of strong growth in the number of cars being registered and the increasing electrical and electronic sophistication of vehicles . While the number of trainees achieving the relevant National Certificate qualifications has been increasing over the last few years, supply through training and migration will struggle to eliminate the current shortfall of automotive electricians. The Department therefore foresees shortages persisting over the short-term, although higher training rates should result in some easing.
For queries regarding this report please contact info@dol.govt.nz.
End notes
1 Motor Industry Association, Monthly Sales Data. [top]
2 Australian national level estimates of training rates are not available. [top]
3 The training rates for ‘all trades’ were calculated for the 14 trade occupations that were examined in-depth using data from the SERA Intensive 2005. As the composition of occupations being examined changes from year-to-year, so will the training rates. [top]
4 ‘Occupational detachment’ refers to individuals who choose not to continue practising in their occupation but retain a connection to the occupation (e.g. move into a management or supervisory role, or retain professional registration), or who leave the occupation entirely (e.g. by changing occupation or withdrawing from the labour market). [top]
Disclaimer: The Department of Labour has made every effort to ensure that the information contained in this report is reliable, but makes no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness and does not accept any liability for any errors. The information and opinions contained in this report are not intended to be used as a basis for commercial decisions and the Department accepts no liability for any decisions made in reliance on them. The Department may change, add to, delete from, or otherwise amend the contents of this report at any time without notice. The material contained in this report is subject to Crown copyright protection unless otherwise indicated. The Crown copyright protected material may be reproduced free of charge in any format or media without requiring specific permission. This is subject to the material being reproduced accurately and not being used in a derogatory manner or in a misleading context. Where the material is being published or issued to others, the source and copyright status should be acknowledged. The permission to reproduce Crown copyright protected material does not extend to any material in this report that is identified as being the copyright of a third party. Authorisation to reproduce such material should be obtained from the copyright holders.