Labour Market Reports - Archive
Labour Market Outlook at a glance
This section contains archived information that has been retained for reference purposes. To view current reports, please go to the Labour Market Information section.
Published: 19 July 2007
Description
This report provides an outlook for the labour market over the two years to March 2009. This report is produced quarterly.
Link to full report
Labour Market Outlook HTML | PDF [ 180 KB, 8 pages]
Summary
Short term - the labour market will continue to improve from last year’s economic easing although growth will be more modest than over the last 5 years.
Medium term – the labour market will remain tight with increased employment, low levels of unemployment and continuing high labour force participation.
Further pressure - the continuing strong performance of the economy will lead to further pressures on some aspects of the labour market including wages, skills and the supply of labour.
Labour Market Outlook projections to March 2009
| Actual | Projections | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2006 | Mar 2007 | Mar 2008 | Mar 2009 | |
| Growth (annual % change) | ||||
| GDP (annual average) | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Employment | 2.6 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Labour force | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Working-age population | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Rates (%, March quarters) | ||||
| Unemployment | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Labour force participation | 68.5 | 68.6 | 68.6 | 68.6 |
Key indicators
Economic growth – recovered in March from a 7-year low in the September 2006 year. Economic growth is expected to rise further in the March 2008, and 2009 years.
Employment growth - is expected to pick up over the next year but will remain low compared to the last five years. As economic growth strengthens, employment growth is expected to rise further in March 2008 and 2009.
Labour productivity - growth of about 1.5% per annum is expected over the next two years. The tight labour market, recent increases in wage costs and recent increases in investment in plant and machinery will require employers to continue seeking productivity gains.
Net migration - inflows are expected to fall in the coming year before steadying at around the long run average of 10,000 in the following year.
Wage growth is likely to stay high in the year ahead. However, some easing is expected given the recent fall in consumer price inflation and a lag from the fall in skill shortages between late 2004 and 2006.
Participation rate - is expected to remain relatively stable over the next two years. Increases in participation due to people being encouraged into the labour market by high wage and employment growth will be offset by decreases in participation due to the ageing population.
Unemployment rate - expected to rise marginally over the next two years due to modest employment growth. However, the unemployment rate is still expected to remain low on a historical basis at no more than 4.0%.
Related information
The Employment and Unemployment report which comments on the latest Household Labour Force Survey release.
Future updates
This is a regular report – the next update is due in October 2007. Reports from previous periods can be found in the archive.
Author or contact details
For further information please contact the Labour Market Analysis team.