Bay of Plenty Region's population

The Bay of Plenty Regional population grew by just under 8% in the period 2001-2006, similar to the national population growth, s shown in Appendix 2. Within Bay of Plenty Region, the fastest growing of the seven TAs was Tauranga City, with a 14 % population growth. Conversely, two TAs (Opotiki and Kawerau Districts) experienced declines in population over this period. There was a large difference in population size between the TAs. Tauranga City alone contained around 40% of the Bay of Plenty Region population, whereas Opotiki and Kawerau Districts combined accounted for barely 6% of the region's population.

In New Zealand, there were 571,176 people aged between 15 and 24 at the time of the 2006 Population Census, up 13.1% from 2001. In Bay of Plenty Region, the number of youth was 30,717. Table 1 shows that Bay of Plenty Region experienced a 9.2% increase in the youth population over this period, which was below the national growth in youth at 13.1%. The change in youth population shows considerable variation at a TA level. Above-average growth in the youth population occurred in two of the six TAs - Tauranga City (19.9%) and Western Bay of Plenty District (16.9%). Conversely, three TAs experienced an actual decline in their youth population. Opotiki District had the biggest decrease in its youth population (-2.9%), in parallel with a 2.4% decline in the total population over this period. Therefore, youth, like the older age groups, are becoming more concentrated in the western parts of this region.

Source: 2006 Census of Population and Dwellings, Statistics New Zealand

Does this pattern of population growth match what you have seen? If not, what differences have you seen? What are the implications of these changes?

Chart 1 shows the distribution of the youth population across Bay of Plenty Region compared with the distribution of the overall population. The majority of youth resided in the west and coastal areas of the region. Tauranga City had by far the largest concentration of young people in Bay of Plenty Region with around 40% of the total youth population, the same as its share of the total population. Western Bay of Plenty District had a slightly smaller share of youth relative to its population, whereas Rotorua District had a slightly higher share of youth relative to its population.

Reflecting the importance of youth to local communities, local government across New Zealand has a range of programmes underway with the aim of integrating young people into council decision making. A list of these programmes is available from the LGNZ website - http://www.lgnz.co.nz/projects/archive/
toolkit/examples/.

Note: This data shows the number of youth within an area divided by the number of youth in all Bay of Plenty Region TAs. The regional data shows the share of national population that lived in the Bay of Plenty.

Another way of analysing the youth population is to look at the share of the total population within a TA and the region aged 15 to 24.

Chart 1 shows how the youth were spread, and Map 2 shows the proportion of each TA's population that were youth.

Map 2 shows the regions that had the highest proportion of their population aged 15-24. There is not much variation between regions in terms of their percentage who were youth. Rotorua District had the most youthful population profile (13% of its population were aged 15-24), while Western Bay of Plenty District had the least youthful population (10% of its population were aged 15-24). This may reflect the popularity of the area for retired people living without children.

In the PDF version of this report a map is included which shows the proportion of youth in each TA. A table showing the same data is included here.

Source: 2006 Census of Population and Dwellings, Statistics New Zealand

In Appendix 2, a table shows the ethnicity composition for the total population of Bay of Plenty Region and the component TAs. The table shows that the total Bay of Plenty Region had a very different ethnic structure to that of New Zealand overall. Whilst the proportion of people who identified as European was similar to the national average, Māori were twice as prevalent as they were nationally (28% compared to 15%). There were relatively few Pacific and Asian people (the third and fourth largest ethnic groups). Combined, Asian and Pacific peoples accounted for just 6% of the population in Bay of Plenty compared with around 16% nationally. People identifying themselves as Māori comprised a relatively large proportion of the population in every TA in Bay of Plenty Region, and in two TAs - Kawerau and Opotiki Districts - there were more Māori than European.

Since Māori had a younger age profile than non-Māori, the over-representation among Māori in Bay of Plenty Region was more pronounced among the youth population (Table 2). By district, the proportion of youth within Bay of Plenty Region identifying as Māori varied from 24% to 76%, compared with a national average of 19%. The share of Māori in the youth population was greatest in Kawerau District, with Opotiki District not far behind. About 76% of all young people in Kawerau District identified themselves as Māori, which was more than four times the national average (and double the Bay of Plenty Region average). Kawerau District also had the smallest proportion of youth in Bay of Plenty Region who identified themselves as European (39%). Interestingly, in two TAs - Western Bay of Plenty District and Tauranga City - there was also an above average proportion of youth who were European.

Note: This profile is based on people's own perceptions of their ethnicity. A number of people identify themselves as having multiple ethnicities, therefore, the percentages sum to more than 100%.

Over half the population of Bay of Plenty Region already resides in the western side of Bay of Plenty Region (Tauranga City and Western Bay of Plenty District), and we have already seen that, between 2001 and 2006, population growth in these areas was faster than the national and regional average. This difference in population growth rates between parts of Bay of Plenty Region is projected to continue. The two western TAs are expected to experience significantly above-average growth, whereas population growth is on a much slower (or even declining) rate for other TAs in the region. This means that the population is expected to become increasingly concentrated in the western portion of the region, which has important implications for the labour market. Between 2006 and 2031, the overall population of Bay of Plenty Region is projected to increase at about the same level as the national population projection.

Table 3 also shows the regional variation in population projections is mirrored in the youth population. The population of 15-24 year olds in the western side is likely to grow at a considerably faster rate than the youth population in the rest of the region. Tauranga City is the only TA in Bay of Plenty Region to have projected youth population growth above the national average. Youth population growth in Bay of Plenty Region is projected to be chiefly driven by large population growth in Tauranga City. Similar tables showing population projections independently for 15-19 and 20-24 year olds for Bay of Plenty Region and the component TAs are provided in Appendix 2.

Over the next 25 years, Bay of Plenty Region is expected to have the third largest increase in youth population of any region (after Auckland and Canterbury). Around 80% of youth population growth in Bay of Plenty Region is projected to be concentrated in Tauranga City.

Note: For more information about the population projections data, see the Data Dictionary.

What are the implications for regional development plans if this forecast of youth population growth occurs? Do current plans reflect these population changes? Do they need to?

Migration

People moving to and from a region can have a large impact on the labour force characteristics of the area. This section looks at how migration (inter-regional and overseas) affected the labour supply in Bay of Plenty Region.

Chart 2 shows net overseas and inter-regional migration (inflows less outflows) for Bay of Plenty Region over the past 10 years. Furthermore, the chart shows that Bay of Plenty Region has experienced a healthy gain in migrants (both internal and overseas) in all age groups except youth. Migrants therefore comprised a significant portion of population growth in the region as a whole. Over half of Bay of Plenty Region's total population gain between 2001 and 2006 was through migration (a gain of 10,020 out of a net increase of 17,967 was due to migration).

It should be noted that the ethnic profile suggests relatively few migrants tended to identify themselves as Asian or Pacific peoples.

The youth age groups are the only age categories where there were net migrant outflows. This was also the case between 1996 and 2001, so there appears to be a longer-term pattern of youth exiting the region. This may be linked to the greater educational and training opportunities elsewhere (given that more youth than ever before are entering tertiary study and there are no universities in Bay of Plenty Region). Between 2001 and 2006, inflows of population resumed from age 25 onwards. One possible explanation for this change in pattern is that, once the education phase in life is complete, people start being drawn back to this region again.

Source: 1996, 2001 and 2006 Census of Population and Dwellings, Statistics New Zealand

Inter-regional migrants

One source of labour supply is people moving to the region from other regions of New Zealand. Young people tend to be highly mobile and are more likely to migrate for work or study than older people. Young people can move regions for a range of reasons, such as to seek employment and education or for family reasons. Regions that are largely urban and offer a range of educational opportunities, such as Auckland and Wellington, generally have a net inflow of young people.

Chart 3 shows that young people aged 20-24 tended to be more mobile than the average population in Bay of Plenty Region, whereas the 15-19 year age group showed about the same level of mobility as the overall population. This probably reflects the fact that the 15-19 year age group are more likely to be still living at home with their parents and therefore reflect broader population shifting patterns, whereas 20-24 year olds are more economically and socially independent.

Mobility levels for 20-24 year olds were highest in Tauranga City and Western Bay of Plenty District. It is interesting to see that 20-24 year olds in Opotiki and Kawerau Districts were the least mobile. However, it may reflect limited post-school study opportunities due to lower educational qualifications (for instance, Opotiki District youth had, along with Kawerau District, the lowest level of school educational attainment). This leads to more youth staying put in their local areas, though as the later data shows, they were not necessarily working.

Source: 2006 Census of Population and Dwellings, Statistics New Zealand

Overseas migrants

Another source of young people for a region is those who migrate into the region from overseas. Not only are these young people a valuable new resource for a region, they frequently have different characteristics. By identifying the number and characteristics of migrant youth, an area can identify how best to make the most of this valuable resource.

Chart 4 shows that Bay of Plenty Region generally had a relatively low proportion of its people living overseas five years ago. (Note that these are not just foreign-born people, as this includes young people back from overseas travel.) Around 7% of Bay of Plenty Region's population lived overseas in 2001 compared to just under 10% nationally. Of course, many young persons may leave and stay away (and the net outflows data shown earlier suggests this to be the case), but those who are in the region appeared to be fairly settled.

It is notable that, on average, a 15-19 year old in Kawerau District was about three times less likely to have been overseas five years earlier than the average 15-19 year old in Bay of Plenty Region. The difference was also large but not as pronounced for Kawerau District 20-24 year olds.

In general, young people in the districts of Kawerau, Opotiki and Whakatane exhibited lower mobility, especially internationally. One of the advantages to this is that these TAs have a relatively settled workforce available to draw upon within this region. Therefore, leading into the next section, investing in upskilling this group living in the east of the region is liable to have considerable dividends, provided that investment is in job skills that are in demand in the region.

Source: 2006 Census of Population and Dwellings, Statistics New Zealand

Does this pattern of inter-regional and international migration match your understanding of what is happening? Are there any active policies in place to address this pattern? If so, how have these policies been chosen?