Inter-regional migration

Migration of people between regions can significantly change the size and make-up of regional populations. Between 2001 and 2006, Wellington experienced a net gain of just over 1,900 people from other regions.

On average, a region gains and loses around 8% of the regional population between Censuses. As measured by the 2006 Census, the number of people moving to Wellington was 8% of the population, while the number leaving the region was equivalent to approximately 7% of the population, making the region overall marginally more stable than the national average.

The age profile of the population

Age is an important factor in the ability of people to work. Compared to the national average in 2006, there were a higher proportion of people between the ages of 20 to 44 years, and a lower proportion of people aged 45 years and above in Wellington Region as a whole. This has an impact on the workforce, as people in their 20s, 30s and 40s are highly likely to be in work. Compared to the national average, there was also a lower proportion of people younger than 15 years of age. This may result in a contracting labour pool as a smaller number of people reach prime working age and move into the workforce. However, this trend may change if inward migration of younger people takes place.

Across Wellington Region, there is a younger age profile in Wellington City, Lower Hutt City, Upper Hutt City and Porirua City. People between the ages of 15-39 accounted for a large proportion of the total population in these TAs. As these people are highly likely to be in work, this suggests that there is a currently a large pool of labour in these areas.

Nearly one-third of the population in Porirua City was below 15 years old in 2006. This suggests the workforce may be boosted when these people reach prime working age.

The aging of the population changes the mix of products and services consumed in a region, but there are also risks for the workforce, for example, business opportunities are created for providers of aged care, and for aged care workers. However, retirees from the workforce need to be replaced by younger people or the workforce will decline. Regions that already have a relatively old demographic profile, that tend to attract older people for lifestyle reasons or that lose younger people to other regions, face a greater risk of seeing their workforce contract.

Compared to the national average in 2006, there is a larger proportion of people aged 65+ years in Kapiti Coast District, Masterton District, Carterton District and South Wairarapa District. The population is projected to age across all TAs in the Wellington Region. The proportion of those aged 65 years and above is projected to rise in all TAs, and the proportion of those likely to be in work (aged 15 to 64) is projected to fall in most TAs.

Kapiti Coast, Masterton, Carterton and South Wairarapa districts are projected to retain the highest concentration of older residents, increasing their share of the population to nearly one-third of all residents.

The ethnic profile of the population

Across Wellington Region in 2006, the ethnic composition varied widely. In terms of absolute numbers, most Maori reside in Wellington City and Lower Hutt City. However, compared to the national average, Maori make up a larger proportion of the population in Porirua City, Lower Hutt City and Masterton District. Pacific Peoples account for 25% of residents in Porirua City. The Asian population was concentrated in Wellington City, where it accounted for 13% of the total population, above the national average of 9% of the population.

As part of the 2006 Census, the ethnicity of 'New Zealander' appeared first as a standard output. In 2006, 11.1% of respondents listed New Zealander as one of their ethnicities. In previous censuses, responses identifying New Zealander as the only ethnicity were coded within New Zealand European category.

Statistics New Zealand are currently analysing the characteristics of respondents who classify themselves as a New Zealander. Initial analysis suggests that people who list their ethnicity as New Zealander are more likely to be aged between 30 and 59, and more likely to be male than female.

The migrant profile of the population

In the Wellington Region in 2006, 22% of the total population was born overseas - the same share as the national average. Results are driven by the high population, high migrant region of Auckland, where 35% of the regional population was born overseas. Within Wellington Region, the migrant population is concentrated in Wellington City, where nearly half of all regionally based migrants live. Migrants to New Zealand make up 27% of the Wellington City population. A large number of migrants also live in Lower Hutt City, where they accounted for 21% of the total population. Compared to the national average, there were a larger proportion of migrants in Wellington Region who have been in the country for 10 years or more.

Discussion point 1:

• Do the trends outlined here fit with what you have heard in the region?
• How do you expect the regional population to grow or decline (i.e. numbers, types of people)?
• Does your region have difficulty retaining certain types of people (e.g. youth)? Why is this?
• What kinds of people does your region want to attract (e.g. families, skilled migrants)?

School leaver attainment

Young people's attainment at school has a pronounced impact on their future labour market outcomes. Results for school leavers in the Wellington Region in 2005 were slightly better than the national average. Fewer school leavers had little or no attainment, and more had university entrance. The regional average is driven by Wellington City where the majority of school leavers lived.

Across Wellington Region's constituent TAs, the school leaver qualification level varies. The proportion of school leavers from Wellington City, Masterton District and Upper Hutt City with university entrance qualifications was slightly higher than the national average, while there were less school leavers with little or no qualifications. In contrast, in Porirua City, Lower Hutt City, Kapiti Coast District and South Wairarapa District, there was a greater share of school leavers with no qualifications and a smaller share of people with university entrance qualifications. This is most notable for Porirua City, where 24% of school leavers had no qualifications compared to 13% for New Zealand as a whole. Only 10% of school leavers in Porirua City had university entrance qualification compared to 29% for the national average. While school leavers with no qualifications and school leavers with university entrance qualifications are both shown in Chart 4, the remaining category is students who left school having obtained partial Level 1 to 3 qualifications.

Skills of the working-age population

On average, the qualification level of the working-age population in Wellington Region was higher than the national average. There was a smaller proportion of working-age population in the Wellington Region with no qualifications, and a significantly larger proportion of the working-age population with a Bachelor degree or higher. There was also a larger proportion of the working-age population in the Wellington Region with Level 5 and 6 diplomas.

Among Wellington Region's constituent TAs, the qualification level of the working-age population was highest in Wellington City. Over a quarter of the working-age population had a Bachelor degree or higher, and there was a larger proportion of people with advanced vocational qualifications (Level 4 certificate, Level 5 and 6 Diplomas). Only 12% of the working-age population in Wellington City had no qualification. Among Wellington Region's TAs, the qualification level of the working-age population was lower in Masterton District, Carterton District and South Wairarapa District. Over one quarter of the working-age population of these districts had no formal qualification, and around 10% of the working-age population had a Bachelor degree or higher.

In South Wairarapa, approximately 90% of all tertiary education provision is at Level 4 Certificate or below. Nationally, the proportion is 38%^[6].

Amongst industry trainees across the Wairarapa area in 2006, the industry training organisations (ITOs) with the largest volume of trainees were the Forestry ITO, with 19% of all trainees and the Agriculture ITO, with 15% of all trainees^[7]. Modern Apprenticeships in 2006 were focused around Horticulture, Agriculture and Forest Industries.

These largest categories mirror many of the largest industries in the area.

On average in Wellington Region, the qualification level of the working-age population is rising. The proportion of the working-age population with no or low qualifications (up to Level 3 or 4 Certificate gained at school) decreased between 2001 and 2006, while the proportion of the working-age population with higher qualifications has increased across the region.

For many of the TAs within the region, the largest increase is for the working-age population with Level 4 to 6 qualifications. These qualifications are frequently linked to industry specific training, an area of strong growth since 2001. The growth in shares of the population with each qualification type is frequently linked to both the availability of the courses and the demand from both students and employers. In particular, Wellington City has an above average increase in the share of the working-age population with Bachelor degrees and higher, reflecting both the demand from employers and students, and the tertiary providers based there.

Participation trends^[8]

The regional labour force participation rate for the Wellington Region was consistently above the national average between 1998 and 2006, standing at a historical high of 70% in 2006.

The participation rate for Wellington remained fairly constant between 1998 and 2006, while the overall participation rate for New Zealand as a whole has been steadily increasing. Hence the gap in labour force participation between Wellington and the rest of the country is gradually closing.

The labour force participation rate rose across Wellington Region between 1996 and 2006. The rise in labour force participation was most notable in South Wairarapa District. For all TAs, growth in the working-age population and the participation rate led to a marked increase in the size of the labour force.

It is likely that the labour force in several TAs will continue to grow over the next two decades, especially in Kapiti Coast District and Wellington City. Recent growth has been driven by growth in the working-age population and, as shown in Table 1, the population is projected to continue increasing in Kapiti Coast District, Porirua City, Lower Hutt City, Wellington City and Carterton District.

The labour forces of Upper Hutt City, Masterton District and South Wairarapa District face the risk of declining in the next two decades. The population in these TAs is projected to decline and, as labour force participation in these areas is currently at a historically high rate, it is uncertain how much further participation rates might rise.

Participation of men and women of different ages

Chart 7 shows participation rates of men and women in different age groups.

Young people's participation tends to be low because many remain in education after school rather than entering the job market. Among people in their 20s and 30s, men's participation is higher than women's, primarily because these are the years in which many people start families.

Compared to the national average in 2006, labour force participation of both males and females in most of the prime working-age groups (20-64 years old) was higher in Wellington Region.

Adjusted participation rates

Differences between regional and sub-regional participation rates can be caused by differences in labour market performance and by differences in the demographic profile of the population.

For example, in a population that has a relatively small share of its population in the prime age groups, the participation rate will tend to be lower irrespective of how the labour market is performing.

The effect of this can be seen in Table 6. An adjusted labour participation rate for Wellington Region indicates what the rate would be if the age and gender structure were the same as the national average. The adjusted participation rate was lower for Wellington Region as a whole. This suggests that, if the share of the overall population aged 15-64 years old in the Wellington Region was smaller, and equivalent to the national average, the overall participation will see a slight fall.

Across Wellington's constituent TAs, adjusted participation rates vary.

The adjusted rate was lower for Wellington City, Porirua City and Lower Hutt City. This is probably because of the larger proportion of people in their prime working ages (15-64 years) in these TAs compared to the national average.

The major contrast to this result is for Kapiti Coast District, where the adjusted participation rate is almost 10 percentage points higher than the unadjusted rate. This large increase in the adjusted participation rate reflects the larger than average share of older residents in the Kapiti Coast District population.

Participation of people in different ethnic groups

Compared to the national average in 2006, the labour force participation rate for all the ethnic groups was higher in the Wellington Region, most notably for the Asian ethnic group. On average in 2006, labour force participation in Wellington Region was highest among those self-identified as New Zealanders, followed by the Maori ethnic group.

Participation rates among ethnic groups in each TA generally follow the pattern of overall participation: TAs with low or high participation rates generally have low or high participation rates among all ethnic groups.

Participation rates of migrants

Migrants made up 22% of the total population in Wellington Region, similar to that of New Zealand as a whole. Compared to the national average in 2006, participation of migrants was higher in the Wellington Region, regardless of the period of time since their arrival in New Zealand.

Participation rates were highest for migrants in the Wellington Region who have been in New Zealand for less than 10 years. The participation rate of migrants who have been in the country for 10 years or more is relatively low. This might be due to the fact that the age profile of this group is older than those who have been here for fewer years, and will include many retired people.

Participation rates of people with different qualification attainment

Reflecting national trends, labour force participation across the Wellington Region was higher for people with higher qualifications.

The participation rate was highest for people with Bachelor degree or higher and lowest for people with no qualifications and a Level 1 certificate gained at school. Compared to the national average in 2006, labour force participation was slightly higher for those with Bachelor degrees or higher, Level 5 and 6 diplomas, as well as people with Level 2, 3 and 4 certificates gained at school.

In contrast, labour force participation was lower for people with no qualifications, Level 1 certificates gained at school, and Level 4 certificates gained post-school.

Table 8 shows the participation rates of people of people with different qualifications among the Wellington Region's constituent TAs.

Taking into account the overall participation of each TA, the participation rate of people with no qualifications was disproportionately low in Wellington City and disproportionately high in Carterton District and South Wairarapa District.

The participation of people with Bachelor degree or higher was also disproportionately high in Masterton and South Wairarapa districts (although lower than the national average).