Appendix C: Model input for baseline
Table C1 to Table C5 list the baseline assumptions for the model. Details for the base year 2006 and the out-year 2021 are detailed below.
Table C1 Baseline assumptions for resources
| |
History |
Baseline |
| 1994-2004 |
1994-2006 |
2006 |
|
2021 |
| Resources and productivity |
% pa |
|
% pa |
|
| Population (000s) |
1.2 |
1.2 |
4,027.9 |
0.8 |
4,535.2 |
| Population aged 65+ (000s) |
1.5 |
1.7 |
495.6 |
2.5 |
717.8 |
| Households |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1,453.2 |
0.8 |
1,649.4 |
| |
average pa
(1991-1906) |
|
average pa |
|
| Net PLT inflow (average per annum) |
12,339 |
|
10,000 |
|
| Net migrant (OB) inflow (average per annum) |
23,854 |
|
20,000 |
|
| |
% |
|
|
|
| Unemployment (% of labour supply) |
6.3 |
5.9 |
4.6 |
|
4.6 |
| |
% pa |
|
% pa |
|
| Labour supply (000 FTEs) |
1.7 |
1.9 |
1,843.4 |
1.5 |
2,289.0 |
| Labour productivity (varies by industry) |
1.4 |
1.1 |
100.0 |
1.2 |
120.3 |
| Capital productivity (varies by industry) |
0.7 |
0.5 |
100.0 |
0.6 |
109.3 |
Table C2 Baseline assumptions for final demand
| |
History |
Baseline |
| 1994-2004 |
1994-2006 |
2006 |
2021 |
| Composition of final demand |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Savings ratio (nominal savings as % of GNP) |
|
|
15.7 |
15.7 |
| Real investment (% of real GDP) |
22.3 |
23.1 |
23.9 |
23.9 |
| Average tax rate (% of nominal household income) |
19.9 |
20.1 |
21.1 |
19.1 |
bottom |
|
|
4.1 |
3.6 |
low |
|
|
12.5 |
11.2 |
middle |
|
|
13.0 |
11.7 |
high |
|
|
24.4 |
22.0 |
top |
|
|
26.1 |
23.5 |
Table C3 Baseline assumptions for world markets
| |
History |
Baseline |
| 1994-2004 |
1994-2006 |
2006 |
|
2021 |
| World markets |
% pa |
% pa |
| Trading partner GDP growth |
3.4 |
3.4 |
|
|
|
| World export demand (varies by commodity) |
|
|
100.0 |
1.9 |
133.4 |
| OECD GDP deflator |
3.4 |
3.2 |
|
|
|
| IMF advanced economies median inflation |
2.1 |
2.1 |
|
|
|
| IMF emerging and developing median inflation |
5.9 |
5.9 |
|
|
|
| OECD other primary commodities $ index |
0.0 |
1.0 |
|
|
|
| World export prices (varies by commodity) |
|
|
100.0 |
2.5 |
144.1 |
| World import prices (varies by commodity) |
|
|
100.0 |
2.4 |
143.5 |
Table C4 Industry productivity and import price assumptions for baseline
| |
Productivity |
World import prices |
| Labour |
Capital |
| Industry |
% pa |
% pa |
% pa |
| Horticulture and fruit growing |
1.88 |
0.63 |
2.13 |
| Livestock and cropping farming |
1.93 |
0.53 |
2.13 |
| Dairy and cattle farming |
1.97 |
0.80 |
2.13 |
| Other farming |
1.90 |
0.63 |
2.13 |
| Services to agriculture, hunting & trapping |
1.88 |
0.63 |
2.13 |
| Forestry and logging |
-0.50 |
-1.34 |
2.13 |
| Fishing |
2.20 |
-1.34 |
2.13 |
| Mining and quarrying |
0.70 |
0.00 |
2.13 |
| Oil & gas |
0.70 |
0.00 |
5.66 |
| Meat and dairy manufacturing |
1.90 |
0.30 |
2.13 |
| Other food manufacturing |
1.87 |
0.00 |
2.13 |
| Beverages, malt and tobacco manufacturing |
1.77 |
0.00 |
2.13 |
| Textiles & apparel manufacturing |
1.03 |
0.40 |
2.13 |
| Wood product manufacturing |
2.23 |
-0.27 |
2.13 |
| Paper & paper product mfg |
2.23 |
-0.27 |
2.13 |
| Printing, publishing & recorded media |
0.00 |
-0.30 |
2.13 |
| Fertiliser & other industrial chemical manufacturing |
0.40 |
0.60 |
2.13 |
| Rubber, plastic & other chemical manufacturing |
0.40 |
0.60 |
2.13 |
| Non-metallic mineral mfg |
2.33 |
1.40 |
2.13 |
| Basic metal manufacturing |
1.60 |
2.03 |
2.13 |
| Structural, sheet & fabrication metal manufacturing |
2.43 |
3.03 |
2.13 |
| Transport equipment manufacturing |
2.33 |
0.80 |
2.13 |
| Machinery and other equipment manufacturing |
2.33 |
1.20 |
2.13 |
| Furniture and other manufacturing |
0.70 |
0.00 |
2.13 |
| Electricity generation & transmission |
1.23 |
-0.50 |
2.13 |
| Water supply |
1.23 |
-0.50 |
2.13 |
| Sewer, drain & waste disposal services |
1.23 |
-0.50 |
2.13 |
| Residential construction |
1.80 |
1.53 |
2.13 |
| Other construction |
1.80 |
1.53 |
2.13 |
| Industrial goods wholesaling |
2.00 |
2.50 |
2.13 |
| Other wholesale trade |
2.00 |
2.50 |
2.13 |
| Retail trade |
1.87 |
0.70 |
2.13 |
| Accommodation, restaurants and bars |
-0.30 |
-0.60 |
2.13 |
| Road freight transport |
2.03 |
1.30 |
2.13 |
| Road passenger transport |
2.03 |
1.30 |
2.13 |
| Rail, water, air transport & services |
2.03 |
1.30 |
2.13 |
| Communication services |
3.50 |
3.40 |
2.13 |
| Finance |
1.27 |
1.80 |
2.13 |
| Insurance |
1.27 |
1.80 |
2.13 |
| Services to finance & insurance |
1.27 |
1.80 |
2.13 |
| Real estate |
-0.33 |
-0.13 |
2.13 |
| Equipment hire & investments in other property |
-0.33 |
-0.13 |
2.13 |
| Ownership of own-occupied dwellings |
0.00 |
-0.74 |
2.13 |
| Science research & computer services |
-0.27 |
-1.07 |
2.13 |
| Other business services |
-0.27 |
-1.07 |
2.13 |
| Central govt admin & defence |
1.50 |
-0.50 |
2.13 |
| Local govt administration |
1.50 |
-1.00 |
2.13 |
| Pre-school, prim and sec education |
1.33 |
-0.27 |
2.13 |
| Other education |
1.33 |
-0.27 |
2.13 |
| Hospitals and nursing homes |
0.50 |
0.70 |
2.13 |
| Other health & community services |
0.50 |
0.70 |
2.13 |
| Cultural & recreational services |
0.83 |
0.20 |
2.13 |
| Personal & other community services |
1.60 |
-0.50 |
2.13 |
Table C5 Commodity export market baseline assumptions
| |
World demand |
World price |
| Commodity |
% pa |
% pa |
| Live animals |
1.00 |
2.13 |
| Dairy |
2.00 |
2.50 |
| Meat |
1.90 |
2.43 |
| Wool |
1.00 |
2.23 |
| Horticulture |
1.53 |
2.43 |
| Fish |
1.40 |
2.43 |
| Other FBT |
1.30 |
2.50 |
| Textiles & Clothing |
1.70 |
2.20 |
| Logs |
1.90 |
2.53 |
| Wood |
1.77 |
2.53 |
| Pulp & paper |
1.80 |
2.47 |
| Printing & recording |
1.80 |
2.33 |
| Oil bunkering |
1.37 |
4.83 |
| Chemicals |
1.37 |
2.50 |
| Coal |
1.33 |
2.23 |
| Mining |
1.17 |
2.20 |
| Ceramics |
1.33 |
2.13 |
| Basic metals |
1.80 |
2.53 |
| Fabricating metals |
1.50 |
2.40 |
| Machinery & equipment |
1.97 |
2.40 |
| Other manufacturing |
1.83 |
2.20 |
| Tourism |
2.70 |
2.50 |
| Freight |
1.50 |
2.20 |
| Education |
2.50 |
2.20 |
| Other services |
2.13 |
2.20 |
