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Scenarios using a computable general equilibrium model of the New Zealand economy

Appendix G: Detailed sector results for Scenario A

Table G1 to Table G4 give detailed results for scenario A.

Table G1 Sector results for 2021 increased immigration scenario A
  Gross output 2006 $m Employment 000 FTEs Capital stock 2006 $m
Baseline % change Scenario Baseline % change Scenario Baseline % change Scenario
HFRG 4,287 6.48 4,565 24.6 5.20 25.9 3,480 8.56 3,777
SBLC 10,113 5.00 10,618 41.6 3.12 42.9 10,943 6.68 11,674
DAIF 7,138 4.19 7,438 31.4 2.49 32.2 6,388 6.15 6,781
OTHF 1,651 5.99 1,750 6.3 4.98 6.6 891 7.79 960
SAHF 2,855 6.55 3,042 20.2 5.95 21.4 1,885 8.39 2,044
FOLO 4,610 10.34 5,087 11.9 8.75 12.9 2,829 11.69 3,160
FISH 1,338 7.88 1,443 2.7 6.11 2.9 2,035 8.78 2,214
MINE 1,937 8.57 2,103 5.0 7.51 5.4 1,463 9.14 1,597
OGPE 13,215 9.83 14,514 5.0 7.99 5.4 10,329 10.00 11,362
MEDA 24,683 4.08 25,691 32.2 3.71 33.3 5,562 4.94 5,837
OFOD 10,755 7.69 11,582 23.4 6.79 25.0 7,994 8.63 8,684
BEVT 7,607 8.95 8,288 5.4 7.26 5.8 5,993 9.77 6,578
TCFL 3,795 10.78 4,205 25.5 10.23 28.1 1,655 12.17 1,856
WOOD 6,904 10.48 7,627 20.6 9.52 22.6 4,826 11.65 5,389
PAPR 4,910 11.24 5,461 5.1 10.21 5.6 4,728 11.79 5,286
PPRM 5,913 9.60 6,481 30.6 8.55 33.2 3,808 11.21 4,234
CHEM 4,348 9.03 4,741 3.6 7.60 3.9 3,132 9.78 3,439
RBPL 6,669 9.36 7,293 20.9 8.61 22.7 3,243 10.62 3,588
NMMP 3,861 9.44 4,225 7.4 8.39 8.0 1,531 10.43 1,691
BASM 6,559 9.42 7,177 6.8 8.22 7.4 3,344 9.99 3,678
FABM 9,550 9.81 10,486 28.7 9.09 31.3 1,789 11.19 1,989
TREQ 5,262 11.74 5,879 16.8 10.86 18.6 6,611 13.39 7,496
MAEQ 14,488 10.42 15,998 47.6 9.84 52.3 1,402 11.21 1,559
OMFG 3,181 10.66 3,520 19.0 9.49 20.8 3,997 12.22 4,485
ELEC 18,908 7.63 20,350 4.7 4.74 4.9 36,103 8.00 38,991
WATS 1,106 5.15 1,163 1.1 2.28 1.1 3,643 5.63 3,848
WAST 969 7.95 1,046 4.8 6.58 5.1 2,238 8.79 2,435
RCON 9,599 9.73 10,533 37.2 7.46 40.0 1,270 10.81 1,407
OCON 34,453 7.54 37,051 113.6 6.50 121.0 6,346 8.85 6,908
WHIN 20,085 8.05 21,701 75.3 7.20 80.7 6,205 9.93 6,821
WHOT 13,691 7.04 14,655 45.6 6.09 48.4 4,662 8.87 5,075
RETT 30,105 7.99 32,511 243.1 6.97 260.0 12,195 9.20 13,317
ACCR 10,888 8.47 11,811 130.6 7.44 140.3 11,226 10.27 12,378
RDFR 8,197 8.14 8,864 26.1 7.48 28.0 7,087 9.13 7,734
RDPS 1,413 8.77 1,537 12.8 8.25 13.8 1,818 9.63 1,993
RWAS 18,417 10.46 20,343 53.2 9.31 58.2 14,461 12.26 16,234
COMM 13,597 8.51 14,754 20.4 6.89 21.8 9,380 9.20 10,243
FINE 15,014 8.11 16,232 43.9 6.78 46.9 6,726 9.09 7,338
INSU 5,233 7.07 5,603 11.7 7.72 12.6 698 6.30 742
SFIN 5,056 7.60 5,441 18.6 5.82 19.7 1,301 10.59 1,438
REES 15,201 6.21 16,144 45.1 2.55 46.2 103,808 6.62 110,680
EHOP 4,581 10.10 5,044 15.7 8.09 16.9 21,807 10.76 24,153
OWND 14,081 2.68 14,458 0.0 na 0.0 185,780 2.68 190,756
SRCS 13,430 8.56 14,579 94.7 7.87 102.1 4,240 9.89 4,659
OBUS 25,694 8.87 27,974 201.4 7.85 217.2 8,948 10.11 9,853
GOVC 14,124 7.70 15,212 81.4 7.30 87.4 36,335 10.19 40,037
GOVL 6,072 7.70 6,539 14.5 6.14 15.4 48,291 9.45 52,855
SCHL 5,941 8.80 6,464 98.2 8.55 106.6 14,725 10.94 16,336
OEDU 6,520 8.27 7,059 51.7 7.92 55.8 14,980 10.65 16,575
HOSP 8,364 11.95 9,364 57.7 11.81 64.5 2,563 13.78 2,916
OHCS 10,223 9.72 11,217 127.6 8.69 138.7 13,802 11.45 15,382
CULT 12,215 7.48 13,128 55.5 5.73 58.7 13,644 8.79 14,844
PERS 5,858 6.57 6,243 55.4 5.79 58.6 5,628 8.24 6,092
Total 514,665 8.08 556,233 2,183.5 7.38 2,344.6 699,766 7.38 751,397

 

Table G2 Household consumption spending for increased immigration scenario A
  Baseline % change Scenario
Consumption 2006 $m      
Food 24,126 4.86 25,299
Housing 20,029 2.68 20,565
Household operation 17,782 7.28 19,076
Apparel 5,956 8.25 6,448
Transportation 26,604 7.99 28,730
Tobacco & alcohol 9,824 6.95 10,507
Other goods 7,993 5.96 8,470
Other services 27,018 5.71 28,562
Total 139,332 5.97 147,656
Consumption by quintile $m      
Bottom 19,079 0.79 19,230
Low 25,474 2.72 26,167
Middle 37,170 4.96 39,015
High 49,402 5.51 52,126
Top 77,050 5.82 81,534
Total 208,174 4.75 218,071

 

Table G3 Export volumes for increased immigration scenario A
  Exports 2006 $m
Baseline % change Scenario
Exports      
Live animals 139 4.69 145
Dairy 8,259 2.18 8,439
Meat 7,025 2.18 7,178
Wool 795 2.24 813
Horticulture 2,352 5.69 2,486
Fish 2,231 5.29 2,349
Other food 4,910 11.14 5,457
Textiles & clothing 3,242 10.19 3,572
Logs 880 12.33 988
Wood 3,120 11.98 3,494
Pulp & paper 2,095 11.91 2,344
Printing & recording 329 10.62 364
Oil bunkering 1,054 4.31 1,100
Chemicals 3,842 9.22 4,197
Coal 171 4.95 180
Mining 40 12.82 45
Ceramics 318 10.66 352
Basic metals 3,922 4.74 4,108
Fabricated metal products 1,030 6.86 1,101
Machinery & equipment 9,250 9.39 10,119
Other manufacturing 514 10.90 571
Tourism 15,399 11.77 17,211
Freight 1,367 11.35 1,522
Education 1,566 10.27 1,727
Other services 5,730 12.50 6,446
Total 79,580 8.45 86,307

 

Table G4 Labour by occupation type for increased immigration scenario A
Occupation type Occupation employment 000s
Baseline % change Scenario
Administrators 4.94 6.49 5.26
Corporate managers 305.40 6.85 326.33
Science professionals 12.65 8.06 13.67
Computing professionals 39.88 7.99 43.07
Architects, engineers 39.67 8.25 42.94
Health professionals 65.80 10.04 72.41
Tertiary teaching professionals 19.37 8.01 20.92
Other teaching professionals 82.49 8.52 89.52
Business professionals 73.09 7.86 78.84
Legal professionals 16.80 8.01 18.14
Other professionals 24.65 7.71 26.55
Science technicians 33.03 7.27 35.43
Computer equipment controllers 10.32 7.19 11.06
Electronic equipment controllers 9.72 7.50 10.44
Ship and aircraft technicians 5.60 8.25 6.06
Health associate professionals 14.81 8.67 16.09
Finance associate professionals 118.61 6.36 126.15
Govt associate professionals 31.59 7.63 34.00
Safety & health inspectors 8.83 6.70 9.42
Writers, artists 41.30 6.73 44.08
Office clerks 173.37 7.57 186.50
Customer services clerks 70.11 7.43 75.32
Travel attendants and guides 6.89 8.40 7.47
Restaurant services workers 86.47 7.52 92.97
Personal service workers 63.18 8.17 68.35
Protective services workers 32.34 7.39 34.73
Salespersons 137.07 7.05 146.73
Farmers 118.86 4.12 123.76
Forestry and related workers 6.74 7.91 7.27
Fishery workers 4.77 5.91 5.05
Building trades workers 93.19 6.74 99.47
Metal and machinery trades 64.26 8.28 69.59
Precision trades workers 15.07 8.20 16.30
Other trades workers 22.01 7.48 23.65
Industrial plant operators 106.96 8.00 115.52
Train, ships crews 2.49 9.01 2.71
Motor vehicle drivers 48.31 7.99 52.16
Earthmoving equipment operators 20.73 7.46 22.28
Building and related workers 11.76 7.80 12.68
Labourers 140.36 8.06 151.67
Total 2,183.48 7.38 2,344.58