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Scenarios using a computable general equilibrium model of the New Zealand economy

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Appendix H: Detailed sector results for scenario B

Table H1 to H4 give detailed results for scenario B.

Table H1 Sector results for 2021 zero inward immigration scenario
  Gross output 2006 $m Employment 000 FTEs Capital stock 2006 $m
Baseline % change Scenario Baseline % change Scenario baseline % change Scenario
HFRG 4,287 -10.02 3,858 24.6 -7.91 22.7 3,480 -13.30 3,017
SBLC 10,113 -7.71 9,333 41.6 -4.48 39.7 10,943 -10.49 9,796
DAIF 7,138 -6.52 6,673 31.4 -3.54 30.3 6,388 -9.82 5,761
OTHF 1,651 -9.17 1,500 6.3 -7.48 5.8 891 -12.09 783
SAHF 2,855 -9.86 2,574 20.2 -8.88 18.4 1,885 -12.82 1,644
FOLO 4,610 -15.06 3,916 11.9 -12.65 10.4 2,829 -17.03 2,347
FISH 1,338 -12.02 1,177 2.7 -9.15 2.5 2,035 -13.42 1,762
MINE 1,937 -12.91 1,687 5.0 -11.24 4.4 1,463 -13.79 1,262
OGPE 13,215 -14.60 11,286 5.0 -11.70 4.4 10,329 -14.87 8,793
MEDA 24,683 -6.36 23,113 32.2 -5.70 30.3 5,562 -7.84 5,126
OFOD 10,755 -11.66 9,502 23.4 -10.20 21.0 7,994 -13.13 6,944
BEVT 7,607 -13.28 6,597 5.4 -10.62 4.8 5,993 -14.53 5,122
TCFL 3,795 -15.94 3,191 25.5 -15.12 21.6 1,655 -17.94 1,358
WOOD 6,904 -14.86 5,877 20.6 -13.42 17.8 4,826 -16.58 4,026
PAPR 4,910 -16.67 4,091 5.1 -15.14 4.3 4,728 -17.49 3,901
PPRM 5,913 -14.23 5,072 30.6 -12.61 26.7 3,808 -16.65 3,174
CHEM 4,348 -13.66 3,754 3.6 -11.40 3.2 3,132 -14.81 2,668
RBPL 6,669 -13.88 5,743 20.9 -12.71 18.2 3,243 -15.79 2,731
NMMP 3,861 -13.57 3,337 7.4 -11.93 6.5 1,531 -15.06 1,300
BASM 6,559 -14.11 5,634 6.8 -12.24 6.0 3,344 -14.97 2,844
FABM 9,550 -14.44 8,171 28.7 -13.34 24.9 1,789 -16.49 1,494
TREQ 5,262 -17.25 4,354 16.8 -15.98 14.1 6,611 -19.57 5,317
MAEQ 14,488 -15.66 12,220 47.6 -14.77 40.6 1,402 -16.86 1,165
OMFG 3,181 -15.77 2,679 19.0 -14.03 16.3 3,997 -18.03 3,276
ELEC 18,908 -11.46 16,742 4.7 -6.71 4.4 36,103 -12.04 31,756
WATS 1,106 -7.53 1,023 1.1 -2.52 1.0 3,643 -8.33 3,340
WAST 969 -11.78 855 4.8 -9.56 4.3 2,238 -13.09 1,945
RCON 9,599 -10.65 8,577 37.2 -6.99 34.6 1,270 -12.35 1,113
OCON 34,453 -11.16 30,607 113.6 -9.47 102.8 6,346 -13.24 5,506
WHIN 20,085 -12.17 17,641 75.3 -10.83 67.1 6,205 -15.07 5,269
WHOT 13,691 -10.49 12,255 45.6 -8.93 41.5 4,662 -13.38 4,038
RETT 30,105 -11.86 26,534 243.1 -10.22 218.2 12,195 -13.75 10,518
ACCR 10,888 -12.59 9,517 130.6 -10.97 116.3 11,226 -15.33 9,505
RDFR 8,197 -12.11 7,204 26.1 -11.06 23.2 7,087 -13.64 6,120
RDPS 1,413 -13.08 1,228 12.8 -12.27 11.2 1,818 -14.38 1,557
RWAS 18,417 -15.58 15,548 53.2 -13.87 45.8 14,461 -18.17 11,834
COMM 13,597 -12.66 11,875 20.4 -10.07 18.3 9,380 -13.73 8,092
FINE 15,014 -12.01 13,210 43.9 -9.86 39.6 6,726 -13.55 5,815
INSU 5,233 -10.41 4,689 11.7 -11.36 10.4 698 -9.28 634
SFIN 5,056 -11.30 4,485 18.6 -8.53 17.0 1,301 -15.68 1,097
REES 15,201 -8.91 13,846 45.1 -2.65 43.9 103,808 -9.59 93,855
EHOP 4,581 -14.99 3,894 15.7 -11.90 13.8 21,807 -15.98 18,323
OWND 14,081 -3.50 13,588 0.0 na 0.0 185,780 -3.50 179,283
SRCS 13,430 -12.78 11,713 94.7 -11.69 83.6 4,240 -14.85 3,610
OBUS 25,694 -13.12 22,323 201.4 -11.52 178.2 8,948 -14.99 7,607
GOVC 14,124 -11.39 12,515 81.4 -10.75 72.7 36,335 -15.17 30,822
GOVL 6,072 -11.40 5,379 14.5 -8.91 13.2 48,291 -14.06 41,500
SCHL 5,941 -15.30 5,033 98.2 -14.92 83.5 14,725 -18.37 12,019
OEDU 6,520 -13.23 5,657 51.7 -12.70 45.1 14,980 -16.75 12,470
HOSP 8,364 -17.57 6,895 57.7 -17.37 47.6 2,563 -20.11 2,048
OHCS 10,223 -14.28 8,763 127.6 -12.72 111.4 13,802 -16.82 11,480
CULT 12,215 -11.08 10,862 55.5 -8.22 51.0 13,644 -13.16 11,849
PERS 5,858 -9.69 5,290 55.4 -8.39 50.7 5,628 -12.37 4,932
Total 514,665 -11.96 453,086 2,183.5 -10.89 1,945.7 699,766 -10.89 623,549

 

Table H2 Household consumption spending for zero inward immigration scenario B
Consumption 2006 $m  Baseline % change Scenario
Food 24,126 -7.13 22,406
Housing 20,029 -3.50 19,329
Household operation 17,782 -10.73 15,874
Apparel 5,956 -12.23 5,227
Transportation 26,604 -11.78 23,469
Tobacco & alcohol 9,824 -10.20 8,822
Other goods 7,993 -8.81 7,289
Other services 27,018 -8.36 24,760
Total 139,332 -8.72 127,177
Consumption by quintile $m       
Bottom 19,079 -1.19 18,852
Low 25,474 -4.11 24,426
Middle 37,170 -7.74 34,292
High 49,402 -8.39 45,256
Top 77,050 -8.81 70,265
Total 208,174 -7.25 193,091

 

Table H3 Export volumes for zero inward immigration scenario B
Exports Exports 2006 $m
Baseline % change Scenario
Live animals 139 -7.70 128
Dairy 8,259 -3.68 7,955
Meat 7,025 -3.68 6,766
Wool 795 -3.79 765
Horticulture 2,352 -9.15 2,137
Fish 2,231 -8.60 2,039
Other food 4,910 -16.78 4,086
Textiles & clothing 3,242 -15.44 2,741
Logs 880 -18.35 718
Wood 3,120 -17.90 2,562
Pulp & paper 2,095 -17.95 1,719
Printing & recording 329 -16.06 276
Oil bunkering 1,054 -7.20 978
Chemicals 3,842 -14.31 3,292
Coal 171 -8.14 157
Mining 40 -19.11 32
Ceramics 318 -16.19 267
Basic metals 3,922 -7.79 3,617
Fabricated metal products 1,030 -10.84 918
Machinery & equipment 9,250 -14.37 7,921
Other manufacturing 514 -16.43 430
Tourism 15,399 -17.59 12,690
Freight 1,367 -17.07 1,133
Education 1,566 -15.28 1,327
Other services 5,730 -18.59 4,665
Total 79,580 -12.89 69,321

 

Table H4 Labour by occupation type for zero inward immigration scenario B
Occupation type Occupation employment 000s
Baseline % change Scenario
Administrators 4.94 -9.60 4.47
Corporate managers 305.40 -10.02 274.79
Science professionals 12.65 -11.94 11.14
Computing professionals 39.88 -11.89 35.14
Architects, engineers 39.67 -12.22 34.82
Health professionals 65.80 -14.77 56.08
Tertiary teaching professionals 19.37 -12.59 16.93
Other teaching professionals 82.49 -14.42 70.59
Business professionals 73.09 -11.62 64.60
Legal professionals 16.80 -11.81 14.81
Other professionals 24.65 -11.57 21.80
Science technicians 33.03 -10.65 29.51
Computer equipment controllers 10.32 -10.61 9.22
Electronic equipment controllers 9.72 -10.92 8.65
Ship and aircraft technicians 5.60 -12.23 4.91
Health associate professionals 14.81 -12.74 12.92
Finance associate professionals 118.61 -9.16 107.75
Govt associate professionals 31.59 -11.76 27.88
Safety & health inspectors 8.83 -9.76 7.96
Writers, artists 41.30 -9.87 37.22
Office clerks 173.37 -11.21 153.94
Customer services clerks 70.11 -10.92 62.45
Travel attendants and guides 6.89 -12.46 6.03
Restaurant services workers 86.47 -11.10 76.87
Personal service workers 63.18 -12.03 55.58
Protective services workers 32.34 -10.89 28.82
Salespersons 137.07 -10.36 122.87
Farmers 118.86 -5.98 111.76
Forestry and related workers 6.74 -11.42 5.97
Fishery workers 4.77 -8.66 4.35
Building trades workers 93.19 -8.78 85.01
Metal and machinery trades 64.26 -12.25 56.39
Precision trades workers 15.07 -12.07 13.25
Other trades workers 22.01 -10.95 19.60
Industrial plant operators 106.96 -11.85 94.29
Train, ships crews 2.49 -13.40 2.15
Motor vehicle drivers 48.31 -11.86 42.58
Earthmoving equipment operators 20.73 -11.02 18.44
Building and related workers 11.76 -11.42 10.42
Labourers 140.36 -11.89 123.67
Total 2,183.48 -10.89 1,945.66
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