Overview

The 2006 census recorded 885,000 overseas-born New Zealand residents and over 2.96 million New Zealand-born individuals. The migrant population is equivalent to 22 percent of the total population at March 2006. This level represents a 26 percent increase in the migrant population since the 2001 census.

Table 4-1 shows population groups in the New Zealand resident population.

NB: Numbers do not sum to the totals because of significant numbers of 'not specified' census returns.

Between January 2001 and December 2005 StatsNZ recorded a gross inflow of 429,000 permanent and long term (PLT) migrants (StatsNZ 2007). Of these migrants, 71 percent (303,000) were overseas-born. Given the census recorded 273,000 recent migrants (overseas-born residents who had been in New Zealand for less than 5 years), this suggests approximately 90 percent of overseas-born PLT migrants arriving between 2001 and 2006 stayed in New Zealand.^[11] This is an increase over the rate during the preceding 1996-2001 inter-censal period of approximately 84 percent.

The table also shows that New Zealand experienced moderate population growth over the 2001-2006 inter-censal period. The population grew by 8 percent over the five years, or approximately 1.5 percent per annum. While net migration was positive in all years (ending June) from 2002 to 2006, the overall rate of population growth was pulled down by a relatively low rate of natural increase (the excess of births over deaths) and a high rate of emigration by the New Zealand-born.

Age and gender structure of the New Zealand population

As noted above, the age and gender structure of population groups gives some indication of their likely fiscal impacts. The profile of the total New Zealand population is relatively well-balanced, with between 6 and 8 percent of the total population falling in each five year age band up to 64 years old and the remaining 5 percent of the population falling in the 65+ category. There are more males in each age group up to 25 years old, while there are more females in each age group over 25 years old (see Table 4-2).

Table 4-3 indicates that the migrant population has a relatively small proportion of people in the younger age groups and a larger proportion of people in the conventional working age groups, particularly the 41 to 64 year old age group.

Comparing Table 4-3 and Table 4-4, it is apparent that the New Zealand-born population has a much more even spread of people across the age groups as shown in Table 4-4. In addition, there are larger numbers of females than males in the over 18 year old age groups.

The observations above suggest that the overall migrant population could be expected to have a lower per capita impact on government expenditures due to its overall age profile. In particular, the overseas-born population has less than half the number of people in the younger age groups, where education costs are concentrated, compared to the New Zealand-born population. The proportion of the population aged 65 years and over is slightly higher in the overseas-born population, which may increase the per capita expenditure given this age group tends to have higher per capita health expenditure. This higher expenditure will be offset somewhat as some overseas-born residents would have delayed entitlement to New Zealand Superannuation.

The overseas-born population may also generate higher per capita income tax revenues, as the proportion of the migrant population in the conventional working age groups is higher. In particular, over 70 percent of the migrant population is in the 18-64 year old age group, but the comparable figure for the New Zealand-born population is just under 60 percent.

Migrant profiles by age

Migrants are categorised according to the number of years since their arrival, as at Census night on 7 March 2006.

• Recent migrants arrived in New Zealand between 2001 and 2006.
• Intermediate migrants arrived in New Zealand sometime between 1991 and 2001.
• Earlier migrants first arrived in New Zealand in 1991 or before.

Table 4-5 shows the age profile of the migrant groups and New Zealand-born population.

This table indicates that the overseas-born population has a slightly older age structure than the New Zealand-born population. It also shows that there is substantial variation in the age composition of the various migrant groups.

By definition, the earlier migrant group has no-one aged under 15 years old. However, Table 4-6, which focuses on people over 15 years and older, reveals that the earlier migrant group has an older age profile overall. The table also indicates that for the population aged over 15 years old, the overseas-born population has a relatively similar age structure to the New Zealand-born population.

Table 4-7 depicts the age and gender composition of the different groups within the migrant population.

Overall, the recent migrants group has a relatively well-balanced age profile, which is similar to that of the New Zealand-born population. There are more females than males in the 18 to 40 year age range. In contrast to the other migrant groups and the New Zealand-born population, there are more males than females in the 41-64 year old age groups.

Intermediate migrants tend to have an older age profile than recent migrants, with only 20 percent of this group aged under 18 compared to 27 percent for recent migrants and 30 percent for the New Zealand-born. However, this group is likely to have a larger proportion of children born in New Zealand (and therefore not counted as migrants) than the recent migrant group. Over one quarter of intermediate migrants are clustered in the 26-40 year age range, and with almost another third in the 41-64 year age range. This relatively equal distribution contrasts to the New Zealand-born population where the numbers in age groups under 40 years old are significantly less than the 41 to 64 age group, as shown in Table 4-4. Approximately one person in twenty in this group is aged 65 plus versus one in ten for the New Zealand population

From a fiscal viewpoint, the intermediate migrants group are likely to have a large positive net impact because this group has a relatively high proportion of working age people. The lower number of people in the younger and older age groups is likely to mean lower education, health and superannuation expenditure, and higher tax revenue than the New Zealand-born.

The earlier migrant group is the largest migrant group, but by definition contains no people aged younger than 15 years old. Furthermore, just under 6 percent of this group is aged under 25 years old. Again, earlier migrant families are likely to have a larger proportion of New Zealand-born children. The large proportion in the 41 to 64 year age group reflects the profile of migration in earlier years and the fact that these migrants were generally in the young adult age group, rather than children, when they arrived.

Migrant profiles by region of birth

Below, demographic profiles of overseas-born people from the 2006 census are classified by region of birth. The duration groups provide additional detail on the pattern of migrant flows across time. Profiles are shown for the six regions of birth, as defined in section 3.2, and include: Australia, the Pacific Islands, UK and Ireland, Europe and North America, Asia and Other.

The numbers of migrants in New Zealand by region of birth are listed in Table 4-8, with the composition of each migrant group pictured in Table 4-9.[12]

People born in Asia made up the largest number within the recent migrants group. This sub-group of recent migrants has a 'bottom-heavy' profile with over 30 percent falling in the 12 to 25 year-old age group. This reflects the large number coming from Asia for education.

Recent migrants from all regions of birth have the largest numbers in the 25 to 40 year range, with significant numbers of children indicating families re-locating. The Australian profile differs, with almost double the average rate of children born overseas. This may reflect the influence of Australian-born children who live with their New Zealand-born parents returning to New Zealand.

Profiles of intermediate migrants again show the largest number of people born in Asia. The majority of intermediate migrants from all regions were in the 26 to 40 year old age group.

Most earlier migrants come from the United Kingdom or Ireland, with the next largest group coming from the Pacific Islands. This indicates that migrants from these regions settle and stay longer than migrants born in other regions. The majority of earlier migrants were in the 41-64 year old age group. This group also contains a significant proportion (29 percent) of people aged 65+.

Migrant profiles by region of residence

Table 4-10 shows the breakdown of migrant groups by region of residence in New Zealand.

Overall, most recent migrants arrive and settle in urban and metropolitan areas of New Zealand, with the majority living in Auckland. This trend is even more pronounced for intermediate migrants, where a larger proportion lives in Auckland. Auckland has the lowest net decrease in migrants as duration of residence increases. This may indicate that migrants may settle and remain in Auckland more easily than other regions, or it may indicate that some migrants may shift to Auckland as they become more established.

Ultimately, however, the immigrant population tends to shift out of the metropolitan cities of Auckland and Christchurch to Wellington, the Rest of North Island and Rest of South Island regions as it becomes established.

As demand for services and revenue change with age, which as shown above is closely correlated with duration of residence, migration is likely to have different fiscal impacts across New Zealand.

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