THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF IMMIGRATION ON HOUSING IN NEW ZEALAND 1991 TO 2016 At a Glance

Published: June 2008 – Economic Impacts of Immigration Working Paper Series

DESCRIPTION

This paper explores links between immigration and housing demand and supply. It investigates housing behaviours between 1991 and 2006 of five different household types. This information and the assumptions on migration flows are used to ‘forecast’ two scenarios showing likely patterns of household formation, housing choices, and the future demand and supply for different tenures in 2016. Special attention was paid to trends in Auckland.

The research was conducted by BERL, commissioned jointly by the Department of Labour and the Centre for Housing Research Aotearoa New Zealand (CHRANZ). It is part of the Department of Labour’s Economic Impacts of Immigration research programme.

LINK TO FULL REPORT

Housing markets and migration: evidence from New Zealand [pdf 177 pages, 1MB]

SUMMARY

A descriptive analysis of trends using the 1991 to 2006 censuses found that the number of new households being created between censuses has been relatively stable (ranging from 80,000 between 1996 and 2001 to 109,000 between 2001 and 2006).

Of the increase of 109,000 households between 2001 and 2006, around 42,000 were migrant couple households (36,000 were New Zealand-born couples). The only decrease was that of 40,000 New Zealand-born single households (some would have coupled while others moved overseas).

In general, the housing behaviour of migrants who have been in New Zealand for more than 15 years becomes similar to that of New Zealand-born residents. 

Housing behaviour is linked more to the partnership status of a household than to place of birth.  In other words, couples from various birthplaces have more in common with couples generally, than with single households from the same birthplace. 

Housing tenure and dwellings scenarios – New Zealand 2016

The household behaviours observed between 1986 and 2006 and two different migration scenarios are used to project a picture of demand in 2016, under a ‘conservative’ migration scenario and a ‘growth’ migration scenario.

Under both scenarios for 2016:

• rentals from private landlords form the largest tenure type of the increase in households (around 50 percent of the new households);
• houses remain the largest dwelling type category, followed by flats or apartments;
• single migrant households will drive growth in demand for flats and apartments.

Housing tenure and dwellings scenarios – Auckland 2016

Between 2006 and 2016 the number of households in Auckland will grow by between 4,752 per annum (conservative scenario) and 7,012 per annum (growth scenario). Migrant couples are a significant share of this (33 percent for conservative and 37.7 percent under the growth scenario).

The increase in renting from the private sector over the next 10 years in Auckland will be well above the national rate in both scenarios.
While the majority of Aucklanders will continue to live in houses, the rate of growth will slow relative to the number of households living in flats or apartments.

Assuming the increase in households translates into demand for new dwellings, demand is not expected to exceed supply. However, the type of dwelling built may need to be adjusted to reflect the changing demand patterns.

RELATED INFORMATION

This report is part of the Economic Impacts of Immigration Research Programme

 AUTHOR OR CONTACT DETAILS
For further information, please contact: research@dol.govt.nz

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