The impact of immigration on the labour market outcomes of New Zealanders
| Impact on Employment Rates | Impact on Wage Rates | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario | Component | Age-Qual | Occ | Age-Qual | Occ |
| Impact on New Zealand-Born | |||||
| A: Halve RM flows | Between | -0.04% | 0.00% | 0.01% | -0.03% |
| (from 138,475 to 69,238) | Within | -0.70% | -0.96% | -0.31% | -0.96% |
| Total | -0.74% | -0.97% | -0.30% | -0.99% | |
| B: Double RM flows | Between | 0.11% | 0.01% | -0.01% | 0.08% |
| (from 138,475 to 276,950) | Within | 1.28% | 1.80% | 0.58% | 1.80% |
| Total | 1.39% | 1.81% | 0.57% | 1.87% | |
| C: RM flows are 75% high-skilled | Between | 0.03% | 0.05% | -0.01% | -0.41% |
| (AQ: 64% in 2006) | Within | -0.02% | -0.05% | 0.01% | 0.05% |
| (Occ: 48% in 2006) | Total | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.35% |
| D: RM flows are 25% high-skilled | Between | -0.03% | 0.00% | 0.06% | 0.66% |
| (AQ: 64% in 2006) | Within | 0.02% | 0.00% | -0.07% | -0.09% |
| (Occ: 48% in 2006) | Total | -0.01% | 0.00% | -0.01% | 0.57% |
| Impact on Earlier Migrants | |||||
| A: Halve RM flows | Between | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.14% |
| (from 138,475 to 69,238) | Within | -0.76% | -0.98% | -0.34% | -0.98% |
| Total | -0.73% | -0.97% | -0.31% | -0.84% | |
| B: Double RM flows | Between | -0.03% | -0.02% | -0.05% | -0.23% |
| (from 138,475 to 276,950) | Within | 1.39% | 1.83% | 0.62% | 1.84% |
| Total | 1.37% | 1.81% | 0.58% | 1.60% | |
| C: RM flows are 75% high-skilled | Between | -0.03% | -0.05% | -0.03% | -1.64% |
| (AQ: 64% in 2006) | Within | 0.03% | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.21% |
| (Occ: 48% in 2006) | Total | -0.01% | 0.00% | 0.01% | -1.43% |
| D: RM flows are 25% high-skilled | Between | 0.19% | 0.08% | 0.14% | 1.75% |
| (AQ: 64% in 2006) | Within | -0.16% | -0.09% | -0.17% | -0.23% |
| (Occ: 48% in 2006) | Total | 0.04% | 0.00% | -0.03% | 1.52% |
| Impact on Recent Migrants | |||||
| A: Halve RM flows | Between | 0.37% | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.20% |
| (from 138,475 to 69,238) | Within | 10.38% | 14.05% | 4.26% | 13.99% |
| Total | 10.75% | 14.07% | 4.39% | 14.19% | |
| B: Double RM flows | Between | -0.59% | -0.04% | -0.20% | -0.33% |
| (from 138,475 to 276,950) | Within | -9.56% | -13.19% | -3.90% | -13.13% |
| Total | -10.15% | -13.23% | -4.11% | -13.46% | |
| C: RM flows are 75% high-skilled | Between | -0.12% | -0.02% | -0.07% | -1.46% |
| (AQ: 64% in 2006) | Within | 0.60% | 3.57% | -0.13% | 1.85% |
| (Occ: 48% in 2006) | Total | 0.47% | 3.55% | -0.19% | 0.40% |
| D: RM flows are 25% high-skilled | Between | 0.56% | 0.06% | 0.27% | 1.59% |
| (AQ: 64% in 2006) | Within | 5.26% | 2.66% | 3.40% | 4.15% |
| (Occ: 48% in 2006) | Total | 5.82% | 2.72% | 3.67% | 5.74% |
Note: Estimated impacts in this table are derived from coefficients in Table 6 and Table 7 for 140 LMAs using instrumental variables, using formulae presented in the text. For the purposes of these simulations, 'high skilled' refers to education groups with post-school or degree qualifications, or predicted occupation groups of Legislators/Administrators/Managers; Professionals; and Technicians/Associate Professionals.