The impact of immigration on the labour market outcomes of New Zealanders
| CES Total Estimate | Unrestricted GL Estimate | Impact on Low-Skilled | Impact on Medium-Skilled | Impact on High-Skilled | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact on New Zealand-born | ||||||
| Scenario A | Halve RM | -0.99% | -0.23% | 0.30% | -0.61% | 0.06% |
| Scenario B | Double RM | 1.87% | 0.23% | -0.30% | 0.61% | -0.06% |
| Scenario C | RM 75% High-skilled | -0.39% | 0.48% | -0.03% | 2.33% | -1.77% |
| Scenario D | RM 25% High-skilled | 0.73% | -0.58% | 0.17% | -2.49% | 1.68% |
| Impact on Earlier Migrants | ||||||
| Scenario A | Halve RM | -0.84% | -1.04% | 2.88% | -1.77% | -1.67% |
| Scenario B | Double RM | 1.60% | 1.04% | -2.88% | 1.77% | 1.67% |
| Scenario C | RM 75% High-skilled | -1.66% | -0.57% | 1.35% | -0.99% | -0.82% |
| Scenario D | RM 25% High-skilled | 1.88% | 0.01% | -0.28% | -0.47% | 0.59% |
| Impact on Recent Migrants | ||||||
| Scenario A | Halve RM | 14.19% | 62.29% | 76.81% | 61.83% | 57.17% |
| Scenario B | Double RM | -13.46% | -62.29% | -76.81% | -61.83% | -57.17% |
| Scenario C | RM 75% High-skilled | 1.56% | 7.02% | 77.53% | 21.83% | -36.21% |
| Scenario D | RM 25% High-skilled | 8.14% | 8.57% | -38.81% | -17.40% | 54.86% |
Note: Estimated impacts in this table are derived from coefficients in Table 6, Table 7, and Table 10 for 140 LMAs using instrumental variables, using formulae presented in the text. For the purposes of these simulations, Here 'high-skilled' refers to predicted occupation groups of Legislators/Administrators/Managers and Professionals, 'medium-skilled to predicted occupation-groups of Technicians/Associate Professionals and Trades Workers, and 'low-skilled' to the remaining predicted occupation groups.