INTRODUCTION

The objective of this project is to identify different labour market outcomes for immigrants with different characteristics.

The methodology is to investigate the relationships between basic labour market characteristics and basic labour market outcomes and the differences between the migrant types in these characteristics and outcomes over time.

Investigating and determining the basic relationships between immigration and labour market outcomes over time presents a major challenge to integrate use of two sets of data. The two datasets are:

• time series data on immigration, and some characteristics of migrants obtained from the arrival cards
• detailed cross-section data on the profile of migrants settled in New Zealand obtained every five years in the Census of Population and Dwellings.

The time series data from the arrival cards show, most importantly, the quantum of flow of inward migrants over time. These show the existence of reasonably consistent long-term trends upwards in migrant inflows and periodic short-term (three to five year) 'bubbles' in migrant arrivals. It is these bubbles that can cause difficulties in causing short-term distortions to the composition of migrants at the following census cross-section profile.

The labour market data provided by the arrival card data are time series information on inward migrants including:

• whether they are New Zealand born or immigrants
• their age group and gender
• whether they are economically active or not
• if economically active, their occupation.

The cross-section census data we have obtained are for the 1981, 1996, 2001 and 2006 Censuses and provide the main parameters of immigrant characteristics and labour market outcomes.

The basic relationships between immigrant characteristics and labour market outcomes relate mainly to the core trend flows of migrants, perhaps separately from the short-term inflows in the bubbles. The four tasks in the process we follow to investigate these basic relationships are listed below:

1. Complete initial analyses of the time series data to determine profiles of immigration, especially in the five years prior to each census.
2. Create spreadsheet models with the census cross-section data that can deliver analyses of the relationships between immigrant characteristics and labour market outcomes, with the ability to isolate the recent arrivals, i.e. those arriving since the last census.
3. These cross-section spreadsheet models can then track (through inter-census comparison and 'date of arrival' data) the profile of changes in labour market outcomes of migrant groups during their period of living in New Zealand since their immigration.
4. Determine the extent of recent changes in immigrants' labour market outcomes. This acknowledges the context, in particular, of major behavioural changes in the labour market over the 2001-2006 period.

Section 2 provides headline analysis and context of migrant flows, their characteristics and labour market outcomes over the 1981-2006 period.

Section 3 takes a closer look at the interaction between immigration flows and the working-age population over the 1981-2006 period. This section reports on the influence of outmigration, as well as inter-census changes in the birthplace of migrants.

Thereafter, we proceed to an analysis and investigation of the data from the four censuses. In section 4, we outline propositions that motivate our investigation, define the terms and variables used in the discussion and provide a summary of the findings of the investigation.

In particular, this investigation has two parts. One part makes observations from numerous cross-tabulations of the data. Of course, not all cross-tabulations can be covered in this report. However, a spreadsheet tool has been developed to enable desired comparisons to be easily generated and depicted. A selection of these comparisons is provided in sections 5-8.

Another part undertakes a formal diagnosis in the form of multivariate regression models of the migrant- and non-migrant-related influences determining labour market outcomes. The appendix section 10 details this examination.

Section 9 contains our concluding comments.

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