Migration Trends & Outlook 2008/09
3 MIGRATION FLOWS
Highlights
- The total number of people migrating to and from New Zealand fluctuates, but the general trend has been continual growth.
- In 2008/09, net migration was 12,500, which was the highest since 2003/04.
- The net inflow of 40,000 non-New Zealand citizens in 2008/09 was the highest recorded since 2002/03 (equal with 2007/08).
- Visitor numbers decreased by 8 percent in 2008/09. About 1.4 million people were granted a temporary visitor, student, or work permit on their arrival in New Zealand.
3.1 Introduction
New Zealand's population is affected by migration flows, including the arrival and departure of New Zealand and Australian citizens and residents; temporary migrants on visitor, work and student permits; and permanent residents through the New Zealand Residence Programme (NZRP). The net migration flow is the difference between the number of permanent and long-term arrivals and the number of permanent and long-term departures.[49]
Many factors affect migration flows. The departure of New Zealanders, particularly to Australia, is one of the main drivers of New Zealand's migration patterns. The free movement of New Zealand and Australian citizens and permanent residents between the two countries makes it relatively easy for New Zealanders to seek opportunities in Australia. Of all permanent departures of New Zealand citizens from New Zealand in 2008/09, 72 percent were to Australia.[50] The number of New Zealanders living overseas, estimated at anywhere from 700,000 to more than 1 million,[51] is increasingly seen as an important contributor to New Zealand's economic prosperity.[52]
New Zealand's environment, people, lifestyle opportunities, and safety from crime or violence are what permanent migrants to New Zealand like most about living in here.[53] These and other factors play an important role in attracting people to New Zealand as tourists, students, temporary workers, or permanent residents. However, these same migrants report dissatisfaction with high tax rates, the distance from New Zealand to their home country or family, the cost of health services, and the difficulty of understanding the tax system.
One measure of a migrant's successful settlement and contribution to New Zealand is whether they remain in the country after their arrival or approval for residence. In 2005, the Department of Labour studied migrants' movement patterns into and out of New Zealand.[54] One key finding from this study was the confirmation that migrants are consistently lost from New Zealand over time.
Migrants leave New Zealand for different reasons, only some of which relate to 'unsuccessful' settlement, such as not being able to find work. Reasons include family ties, business commitments, or an intention to live and work in New Zealand only temporarily rather than settle permanently. Department of Labour research shows that most migrants are not highly mobile. Of migrants approved between 1998 and 2004, 79 percent had fewer than three spells of absence from New Zealand, with only a small proportion of migrants being highly mobile and spending significant periods out of New Zealand.[55]
Sections 3.2 and 3.3 analyse temporary arrivals and permanent and long-term migrants, respectively. More detailed analysis of temporary migrants can be found in Chapter 4. Section 3.4 assesses the impact of migration on population growth. Sections 3.5 and 3.6 track the cohorts of migrants approved for residence within specific financial years. This analysis looks at migrants who arrived to take up residence and migrants who left New Zealand permanently, with time-series analysis showing movement patterns over time.
3.2 Temporary arrivals in New Zealand
Most people arriving in New Zealand are overseas visitors intending to stay for fewer than 12 months or New Zealand residents returning from a short trip. Within any given year, flows fluctuate seasonally, with large numbers of visitors arriving over the summer months and during particular events, such as the New Zealand International Sevens tournament.
In 2008/09, almost 1.4 million people were granted a temporary visitor, student, or work permit on arrival in New Zealand. In addition, more than 753,000 Australian citizens travelled to New Zealand (Australian citizens do not require a permit to enter New Zealand). Overall, visitor numbers decreased 8 percent between 2007/08 and 2008/09.
Figure 3. 1 Number of visitor arrivals to New Zealand, 1999/2000–2008/09
Note: Australian citizens are not included in the number of visitor arrivals.
Source: Department of labour
3.2.1 Visitor arrivals by source country
The top five visitor source countries (the United Kingdom, the United States, China, Japan, and South Korea) contributed 55 percent of all temporary arrivals to New Zealand in 2008/09. The number of visitors from all these countries decreased between 2007/08 and 2008/09.
Figure 3. 2 Top six source countries of visitor arrivals, 2006/07–2008/09
Note: Australian citizens are not included in the number of visitor arrivals.
Source: Department of Labour
3.2.2 Work and student arrivals
The number of migrants coming to New Zealand for work or study over the decade to 2008/09 has grown rapidly. The peaks for the number of people arriving as international students are aligned to the academic year-semesters start in January/February and July. Less seasonal fluctuation is seen in the numbers of people coming to New Zealand to work, but numbers are generally higher in summer.
Figure 3.3 shows the sustained increase in the number of work-permit holders entering New Zealand since 1999/2000. The slowdown between 2007/08 and 2008/09 was due to both a decrease in the number of applications being made and to an increase in the decline rate of those applications. International student numbers had been decreasing since a peak in 2002/03, largely due to declining number of students from China, but they increased from 2006/07 as the market diversified.
Figure 3. 3 Number of worker and student arrivals, 1999/2000–2008/09
Source: Department of Labour
3.3 Permanent and long-term migration
Permanent and long-term arrivals include people who arrive in New Zealand intending to stay for 12 months or more (visitors, students, workers, and people granted permanent residence), plus New Zealand residents returning after an absence of 12 months or more.
Permanent and long-term departures include people leaving New Zealand after a stay of 12 months or more (visitors, students, and workers), plus New Zealand residents departing for an intended period of 12 months or more.
Net permanent and long-term migration is the difference between the number of permanent and long-term arrivals and the number of permanent and long-term departures.
The total number of people migrating to and from New Zealand fluctuates greatly from year to year, but cyclical patterns emerge over a long time. The general trend has been one of continual growth. Figure 3.4 shows the changes in permanent and long-term arrivals and departures since 1978/79 and the fluctuations in net migration. Since 2001/02, the net migration has been positive, with the highest net migration over the previous three decades happening in 2002/03, when arrivals were 42,500 higher than departures. The 2008/09 net migration of 12,500 was the highest since 2003/04.
Figure 3. 4 Annual permanent and long-term migration flows, 1978/79–2008/09
Source: Statistics New Zealand
In general, the number of permanent and long-term migrants arriving from Oceania over the past decade, including from Australia and other Pacific countries, is down on the numbers arriving in the 1980s, but is higher than numbers in the 1990s.
The number of permanent and long-term migrants arriving from Asia increased rapidly between 1999/2000 and 2002/03, largely because of significant growth in the export education industry. From 2002/03, this number decreased sharply until 2005/06, after which it showed a slow but steady growth. This decrease in migrants from Asia was primarily due to falling international student numbers and a decrease in the number of Asian people granted permanent residence in those years.
The number of permanent and long-term migrants from Europe (in particular, from the United Kingdom) was declining from a high in 2005/06, but remained fairly static from 2007/08 to 2008/09. The decrease was largely due to the falling number of Europeans granted permanent residence.
Figure 3.5 shows the patterns of migration flows for New Zealand and non-New Zealand citizens. Over the three decades to 2008/09, the number of New Zealand citizens returning after being away for 12 months or more was relatively constant. The number of New Zealand citizens departing for 12 months or more has fluctuated, but has tended to increase since 1993. The number of New Zealand citizens departing for 12 months or more has been consistently greater than the number returning, resulting in a steady loss of New Zealand citizens over time. The loss of New Zealand citizens has been mainly to Australia; 72 percent of all permanent and long-term departures of New Zealand citizens have been to Australia. However, the net outflow of New Zealand citizens is offset by the net inflow of non-New Zealand citizens.
Figure 3. 5 Annual permanent and long-term migration flows by citizenship, 1978/79–2008/09
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Table 3.1 shows the permanent and long-term migration flows for 2007/08 and 2008/09. In 2008/09, the net inflow of permanent and long-term migration to New Zealand was 12,500 people (the difference between 88,300 permanent and long-term arrivals and 75,700 permanent and long-term departures), which was more than double the 4,700 recorded for 2007/08. This increase was mainly because of a large decrease in the number of departing New Zealand citizens (down 5,800 from 2007/08).
Permanent and long-term arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens increased from 62,200 in 2007/08 to 63,400 in 2008/09. The net inflow of 40,000 non-New Zealand citizens in 2008/09 was the same as in 2007/08 and remains the highest net inflow recorded since 2002/03.
| Permanent and long-term migration flows | New Zealand citizens | Non-New Zealand citizens | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007/08 | 2008/09 | 2007/08 | 2008/09 | 2007/08 | 2008/09 | |
| Net migration | -35,300 | -27,700 | 40,000 | 40,000 | 4,700 | 12,500 |
| Arrivals | 23,000 | 24,800 | 62,200 | 63,400 | 85,200 | 88,300 |
| Departures | 58,300 | 52,500 | 22,200 | 23,300 | 80,500 | 75,700 |
Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding.
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Table 3.2 shows the permanent and long-term migration flows of New Zealand citizens to Australia and the United Kingdom, the two countries with the biggest impact on migration flows to and from New Zealand.
The majority of departures of New Zealand citizens are to Australia-37,500 people left in 2008/09 (3,100 fewer than in 2007/08). Arrivals of New Zealand citizens from Australia increased slightly, up 400 to 8,900 in 2008/09. This resulted in a net migration outflow of 28,700 (3,500 fewer than in 2007/08).
The number of New Zealand citizens departing to the United Kingdom also decreased by 2,000, and the number of New Zealand citizens returning from the United Kingdom increased by 700. This resulted in a positive net migration of 1,900 from the United Kingdom, the highest figure for more than 30 years.
| Permanent and long-term migration flows | Australia | United Kingdom | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | 08/09 | % change 07/08-08/09 | 07/08 | 08/09 | % change 07/08-08/09 | |
| Net migration | -32,200 | -28,700 | 11 | -800 | 1,900 | 338 |
| Arrivals | 8,400 | 8,900 | 5 | 6,900 | 7,600 | 10 |
| Departures | 40,600 | 37,500 | -8 | 7,700 | 5,600 | -27 |
Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding.
Source: Statistics New Zealand
3.4 Impact of migration on population growth
Population growth in the year to 2007/08 was due to a natural increase (that is, more births than deaths) of 35,800 (88 percent), plus net permanent and long-term migration of 4,700 (12 percent). The natural increase is usually the main contributor to population growth, accounting for about two-thirds of New Zealand's population growth in the past decade.
New Zealand's estimated resident population at 30 June 2008[56] was 4,251,000, which is an increase of 41,700 (1.0 percent) from the 30 June 2007 estimate of 4,209,300. This population growth was less than the average annual increase of 45,000 (1.1 percent) over the previous decade.
Figure 3.6 shows that the natural increase is constant over the series, but the fluctuations in the annual population change follow the movements in net migration.
Figure 3. 6 Components of population growth, 1991/92–2007/08
Source: Statistics New Zealand
3.5 Migrants who did not take up residence
Most migrants approved for residence from 2001/02 to 2007/08 arrived in New Zealand to take up residence or were in New Zealand at the time of approval.[57] Of the 333,503 people approved during this period, 323,098 (97 percent) took up residence in New Zealand.[58]
Approvals under the Investor Category had the highest rate of people who were approved for residence but did not arrive in New Zealand. From 2001/02 to 2007/08, the Investor Category accounted for 4 percent of approvals for residence, but represented 14 percent of people who did not arrive in New Zealand to take up residence. Over the same period, the Uncapped Family Sponsored Stream (which is largely made up of approvals under the Partnership Category) accounted for 18 percent of approvals, but accounted for just 2 percent of people who did not arrive in New Zealand to take up residence.
| Residence approval category | Approvals | Non-arrivals | Non-arrival rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 333,503 | 10,405 | 3 |
| Skilled/Business | |||
| Skilled | 183,137 | 5,455 | 3 |
| Investor | 12,104 | 1,736 | 14 |
| Entrepreneur | 8,697 | 74 | 1 |
| Other | 116 | 5 | 4 |
| Subtotal | 203,938 | 7,265 | 4 |
| Uncapped Family Sponsored Stream | 61,599 | 1,053 | 2 |
| Parent Sibling Adult Child Stream | 38,297 | 1,133 | 3 |
| International / Humanitarian | 29,553 | 949 | 3 |
Source: Department of Labour
3.6 Residence approval categories of long-term absent migrants
'Long-term absent' refers to a permanent migrant who has left New Zealand and been out of the country for 6 months or longer.[59]
Table 3.4 combines the residence approval categories into six groups and shows the proportion of migrants absent for 6 months or longer as at 30 June 2009. The table shows a wide variation in the proportions absent in different cohorts and different groups. Migrants approved through the Skilled/Business Stream have the highest rate of long-term absence, with approximately one-fifth of Skilled/Business migrants leaving permanently. Absence rates are lowest for migrants approved for residence through the International/Humanitarian Stream. Appendix D details the rates of absence by source country from 1997/98 to 2007/08.
The rate of absence generally increases with the length of time since residence, with the earliest cohort having the highest rate of absence. At 30 June 2009, 26 percent of migrants approved in 2001/02 had been absent for 6 months or longer, compared with 4 percent of the migrants approved in 2007/08 (see Table 3.4).
| Residence approval group | Percentage long-term absent by cohort as at 30 June 2009 (%) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 /02 | 2002 /03 | 2003 /04 | 2004 /05 | |
| Total approved and arrived | 50,679 | 46,355 | 37,721 | 47,583 |
| Skilled/Business | ||||
| Skilled | 27 | 25 | 22 | 17 |
| Investor | 50 | 53 | 49 | 44 |
| Entrepreneur | 31 | 18 | 13 | 10 |
| Other | 40 | 38 | 0 | 0 |
| Subtotal | 30 | 28 | 23 | 18 |
| Uncapped Family Sponsored | 18 | 17 | 17 | 13 |
| Parent Sibling Adult Child | 17 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| International/Humanitarian | 18 | 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Percentage long-term absent as at 30 June 2009 | 26 | 23 | 18 | 15 |
| Number long-term absent as at 30 June 2009 | 13,058 | 10,605 | 6,972 | 7,214 |
| Residence approval group | Percentage long-term absent by cohort as at 30 June 2009 (%) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 /06 | 2006 /07 | 2007 /08 | Total | |
| Total approved and arrived | 50,164 | 45,916 | 44,684 | 323,102 |
| Skilled/Business | ||||
| Skilled | 15 | 8 | 4 | 17 |
| Investor | 26 | 35 | 21 | 49 |
| Entrepreneur | 8 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| Other | 0 | 0 | 30 | |
| Subtotal | 15 | 8 | 4 | 18 |
| Uncapped Family Sponsored | 12 | 7 | 3 | 12 |
| Parent Sibling Adult Child | 14 | 10 | 6 | 13 |
| International/Humanitarian | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| Percentage long-term absent as at 30 June 2009 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 15 |
| Number long-term absent as at 30 June 2009 | 6,552 | 3,565 | 1,598 | 49,564 |
Note: The 2008/09 cohort was excluded from this analysis because migrants in that cohort had had insufficient time to arrive in New Zealand.
Source: Department of Labour
[49] An arrival or departure is permanent and long term if the intended length of stay or absence is 12 months or more.
[50] Statistics New Zealand. 2009 International Travel and Migration: June 2009, Hot Off The Press. Wellington: Statistics New Zealand. (accessed 21 October 2009).
[51] Population and Sustainable Development website, Sustainable Development for New Zealand: Programme of Action. Available at http://www.population.govt.nz/population-faq.aspx (accessed 21 October 2009).
[52] http://www.keanewzealand.com/index.html (accessed 21 October 2009).
[53] Statistics New Zealand, 2008. Longitudinal Immigration Survey: New Zealand (LisNZ)—Wave 1, Hot Off The Press. Wellington: Statistics New Zealand. (accessed 21 October 2009).
[54] P Shorland. 2006. People on the Move: A Study of Migrant Movement Patterns to and from New Zealand. Wellington: Department of Labour. Available at http://www.dol.govt.nz/pdfs/Migrants-absenteeism-from-NZ.pdf (accessed 21 October 2009).
[55] P Shorland. 2006. People on the Move: A Study of Migrant Movement Patterns to and from New Zealand. Wellington: Department of Labour, Table 4.15, p. 55. Available at http://www.dol.govt.nz/pdfs/Migrants-absenteeism-from-NZ.pdf (accessed 21 October 2009).
[56] The estimated resident population is based on the census, usually resident population count, with adjustments for residents missed or counted more than once by the census and for residents temporarily overseas on census night. 30 June 2008 is the most recent estimate of resident population.
[57] The 2008/09 cohort is excluded from this analysis, because the people in this cohort had not had 12 months to arrive in New Zealand at the time of publication.
[58] The number of residence approvals in a given cohort is based on the number of applications completed within the calendar year, not the number of applications decided. An application is decided when a decision is made to approve or decline the application. An application is completed when the visa or permit label is issued in the applicant's passport.
[59] This section is based on a cohort analysis, which is described in footnotes 57 and 58.
