Migration flows

Introduction

New Zealand’s population is affected by various migration flows. Migration flows include trans-Tasman migration, the arrival and departure of New Zealand and Australian citizens and residents, the arrival and departure of visitors and people on work and student permits and the arrival of permanent residents through the New Zealand Residence Programme (NZRP). Net migration flows take into account the difference between the number of permanent and long term (PLT) arrivals and PLT departures.[1]

Many factors affect migration flows. The free movement of New Zealand and Australian citizens and permanent residents between the two countries makes it relatively easy for New Zealanders to seek opportunities abroad. The departure of New Zealanders, particularly to Australia, is one of the main drivers of New Zealand’s migration patterns. New Zealand’s expatriate community, estimated at between 500,000–750,000,[2] is increasingly seen as an important contributor to New Zealand’s economic prosperity.[3]

Research on permanent migrants to New Zealand has shown that New Zealand’s environment, people, lifestyle choices and safety from crime or violence are some of the things people like most about living here.[4] However, these same migrants report that the distance from their home country or family is a negative aspect of life in New Zealand. These and other reasons play an important role in attracting people to New Zealand as tourists, students, temporary workers, or permanent residents.

Temporary arrivals in New Zealand

The majority of people arriving in New Zealand are either overseas visitors intending to stay for less than 12 months, or New Zealand residents returning from a short trip overseas. The majority of those departing are either overseas visitors returning from a short stay, or departing New Zealand residents who intend to return to the country within 12 months. Within any given year, there are seasonal fluctuations in flows, with large numbers of visitors arriving over the summer months or during particular events.

In 2006/07, over 1.5 million people were granted a temporary visitor, student, or work permit upon arrival in New Zealand. In addition, over 720,000 Australian citizens travelled to New Zealand (Australian citizens do not require a permit to enter New Zealand). The largest visitor source countries in 2006/07 were Australia, the UK and the USA, followed by Japan, South Korea and China. Countries with the greatest increase in visitor numbers over the last 12 months include Australia, China, the UK, South Korea, Canada and Thailand. Figure 2.1 illustrates the steady growth in visitors to New Zealand over the last decade.

Figure 2.1 Visitor arrivals between 1997/98 and 2006/07

Data Table for Figure 2.1

There has been rapid growth in the number of migrants coming to New Zealand for work or study over the last decade. The number of people arriving as international students peaks at times aligned to the academic year, such as in January or February, and again in July. There is less seasonal fluctuation for those coming to New Zealand to work, but numbers are generally higher at the beginning of the year. Figure 2.2 shows the sustained increase in the number of work permit holders entering New Zealand since 1997/98. International student numbers have decreased since their peak in 2002/03, but have begun to level out over the last 12 months.

Figure 2.2 Work and student arrivals between 1997/98 and 2006/07

Data Table for Figure 2.2

Permanent and long term migration

Permanent and long term (PLT) arrivals include people who arrive in New Zealand intending to stay for a period of 12 months or more. This includes people granted permanent residence in New Zealand, New Zealand residents returning after an absence of 12 months or more, and students and work permit holders intending to stay for 12 months or more. PLT departures include New Zealand residents departing for an intended period of 12 months or more, as well as overseas visitors, students, or work permit holders leaving New Zealand after a stay of 12 months or more. Net PLT migration is the difference between the number of PLT arrivals and the number of PLT departures.

The total number of people migrating to and from New Zealand fluctuates over time, and cyclical patterns emerge over long time series. Despite these fluctuations, the general trend has been one of continual growth. New Zealand has had periods of net outflows of people, such as in the 1980s and late 1990s, followed by periods of net inflows. Over the last decade, there has been an average net gain of 10,300 people per annum. Figure 2.3 shows the changes in PLT arrivals and departures since 1979 and the fluctuations in net migration inflows and outflows.

Figure 2.3 Annual migration flows from 1979 to 2007

Data Table for Figure 2.3

Source: Statistics New Zealand.

The movement of non-New Zealand citizens has increased steadily since the early 1990s, with much greater numbers arriving than departing. In general, the number of migrants coming from Oceania has decreased since the 1980s, while the number from Asia and Europe has increased. The number of permanent and long term migrants coming from Asia increased rapidly between 2000 and 2003, largely a result of significant growth in the export education industry.

Since 2003, the number of PLT arrivals from Asia has decreased, while those from Europe and the UK have increased. The decrease from Asia is largely because of falling international student numbers, but also from a shift in the main source countries for permanent residence in New Zealand. Over the last four years, the number of Asian people granted permanent residence has decreased, particularly from Southern Asia, while numbers from the UK and Europe have increased.

Over the last three decades, the number of New Zealand citizens returning after being away for 12 months or more has been relatively constant. Conversely, the number of PLT departures has fluctuated, but generally increased. Figure 2.4 shows that the number of New Zealand citizens departing long term has been consistently greater than those returning, resulting in a steady loss of New Zealand citizens over time. Much of the loss of New Zealand citizens has been to Australia. Figure 2.4 shows the different patterns of migration between New Zealand citizens and non-New Zealand citizens.

Figure 2.4 Annual migration flows by citizenship from 1979 to 2007

Data Table for Figure 2.4

Source: Statistics New Zealand.

In the year to June 2007, the net inflow of PLT migration to New Zealand was 10,100 – the balance of 82,700 PLT arrivals and 72,600 PLT departures. Table 2.1 shows that the net inflow in the year to June 2007 fell slightly from 10,700 in the previous year. This resulted from an increase in the number of departing New Zealand citizens (up 4,100) and a fall in the number of returning New Zealand citizens (23,500 compared to 24,000 in the year to June 2006).

PLT arrivals of overseas citizens increased from 56,000 in the year to June 2006 to 59,200 in the year to June 2007, resulting in a net inflow of 38,400 – the highest net inflow of non-New Zealand citizens since 2003. In the year to June 2007, the highest sources of net PLT migration were the UK (9,400), followed by the Philippines (3,100), India (2,800) and Fiji (2,400). Departures to Australia increased by 13 percent in the year to June 2007, resulting in a net PLT outflow to Australia of 25,000, up from 20,500 in the year to June 2006.