Return migration due to the economic crisis

The global economic downturn and rising unemployment has put pressure on governments to limit the inflow of foreign workers.^[42] As competition for jobs has increased, many OECD countries have responded by putting in place mechanisms to reduce temporary flows of migrant workers. New Zealand's immigration policy settings are sensitive to the changing labour market conditions, so have required little intervention in comparison with those in other OECD countries. New Zealand has not entered into any multilateral or bilateral agreements on the return of foreign workers.

Reduction of labour migration

The main entry into New Zealand's labour market for temporary migrants is through the Essential Skills Policy or seasonal work policies, all of which are labour market tested.^[43] Requiring a job offer to obtain a permit through Essential Skills Policy ensures migrant labour is not oversupplied when the labour market tightens. Rising unemployment in New Zealand has lessened opportunities for new migrants to enter the labour market, and limited the possibility of permits being renewed for migrants already in New Zealand.

The demand for migrant workers through the Essential Skills Policy and seasonal work policies decreased steadily from October 2008. In the last quarter of 2008/09, the number of applications accepted was down 26 percent on the corresponding quarter in 2007/08. In addition, the decline rate on these applications has increased since late 2008, peaking at 19 percent in April 2009. The high decline rate for migrants applying offshore has reduced the number of new workers coming to New Zealand. For those applying onshore, a declined application may mean migrants will leave New Zealand.

Permanent and long-term migration

This section describes the recent trends in permanent and long-term (PLT) migration flows. The discussion focuses on the arrival and departures or New Zealand citizens and the arrival and departure of non-New Zealand citizens. The data used is from Statistics New Zealand.^[44]

PLT arrivals are people who arrive in New Zealand intending to stay for 12 months or more (visitors, students, workers, and people granted permanent residence) and New Zealand residents returning after an absence of 12 months or more.

PLT departures are people leaving New Zealand after a stay of 12 months or more (visitors, students, and workers) and New Zealand residents departing for an intended period of 12 months or more.

Movement of New Zealand citizens

The movement of New Zealanders, particularly departures to Australia, is one of the main drivers of New Zealand's migration patterns. The free movement of New Zealand and Australian citizens and permanent residents between the two countries makes it relatively easy for New Zealanders to seek opportunities in Australia. Of all permanent departures of New Zealand citizens from New Zealand in 2008/09, 72 percent were to Australia.^[45]

The economic recession has had a significant impact on the migration flow of New Zealand citizens. Table 20 shows that more New Zealanders are returning and fewer are leaving. The data shows the number of New Zealanders returning increased by 9 percent in the year to August compared with the previous year. The returning flows were greatest from Australia and Europe. Of more significance to net^[46] migration has been the decrease in the number leaving. PLT departures to Australia decreased 18 percent in the year to August 2009 and 25 percent fewer New Zealanders departed to Europe.

Table 20: Permanent and long-term arrivals and departures of New Zealand citizens by country or region of last/next permanent residence, 2008-2009

Country/region of last/next permanent residence	Arrivals		Percentage change from 2008 (%)	Departures				Percentage change from 2008 (%)
	Year ended 31 August			Year ended 31 August
	2008	2009		2008		2009
Total*	23,273	25,418	9.2	59,132		48,518		-17.9
Australia	8,409	9,362	11.3	41,786		34,422		-17.6
Asia	2,295	2,459	7.1	2,719		2,313		-14.9
Europe	8,412	9,215	9.5	9,097		6,844		-24.8
Americas	1,932	2,189	13.3	2,613		2,446		-6.4
Rest of world	1,870	1,863	-0.4	2,357		2,107		-10.6

^* Includes 'not stated'.

Source: Statistics New Zealand.

Movement of non-New Zealand citizens

The impact of the economic recession on the migration flows of non-New Zealand citizens is not as pronounced as for New Zealanders, but the impacts vary significantly by country and region. In the year to August 2009, the number of PLT arrivals from Asia was higher than the previous year (4 percent), but lower for Australia, Europe, and the rest of the world (Table 21). In contrast, fewer non-New Zealand citizens departed to Australia (down 8 percent) while a growing number returned to Asia (up 10 percent) and the Americas (up 6 percent).

Table 21: Permanent and long-term arrivals and departures of non-New Zealand citizens by country or region of last/next permanent residence, 2008-2009

Country/region of last/next permanent residence	Arrivals		Percentage change from 2008 (%)	Departures		Percentage change from 2008 (%)
	Year ended 31 August			Year ended 31 August
	2008	2009		2008	2009
Total*	63,433	62,078	-2.1	22,636	23,336	3.1
Australia	4,941	4,744	-4.0	4,844	4,459	-7.9
Asia	23,133	24,075	4.1	6,740	7,425	10.2
Europe	18,039	17,245	-4.4	6,054	6,047	-0.1
Americas	5,003	5,040	0.7	2,633	2,779	5.5
Rest of world	10,334	9,488	-8.2	1,619	2,101	29.8

^* Includes 'not stated'.

Source: Statistics New Zealand.

Immigration processing priority for expatriates' partners

Partners of New Zealand citizens and residents do not have an automatic right of permanent residence in New Zealand. Partnership Policy allows the partners of New Zealand citizens and residents to apply for residence in New Zealand in order to live with their partner in New Zealand.

One of the Government's immigration policy priorities is to attract overseas New Zealanders back to New Zealand. Since July 2008, the Department of Labour has given priority to partnership residence applications where the sponsor is an expatriate New Zealander.^[47] In practice, this means an application that meets the priority criteria is allocated to a case officer immediately rather than put into a managed queue, thereby reducing the processing time. An expatriate, for the purpose of sponsoring an applicant under family partnership, is:

• a New Zealand Citizen, or
• the holder of an indefinite returning resident visa who has been absent from New Zealand for a period of at least 2 years before the date of the application being accepted for consideration, apart from short visits within that period.

Research on migrant mobility

This section describes the findings from research commissioned or undertaken by the Department of Labour about the settlement and mobility of new migrants to New Zealand.

Settlement patterns and geographic mobility of recent migrants

Research into the settlement patterns and geographic mobility of recent migrants was commissioned by the Department of Labour. This research uses census data to examine migrants' settlement patterns in New Zealand.^[48] Results indicate that recent migrants are more likely to settle in areas where a larger proportion of previous immigrant populations from their region of origin have settled ('migrant networks'). Earlier migrants (in New Zealand for 5-10 years) are also likely to be resident in these areas, but to a lesser extent.

No evidence was found that recent migrants choose to settle in areas with better labour market outcomes.^[49] However, there is some evidence that earlier migrants are more likely to have relocated to areas with better labour market outcomes for the general population. This suggests that labour market conditions become a more important determinant of settlement location in the longer term. However, migrant networks remain the dominant factor.

Interestingly, controlling for migrant networks from the same region of origin shows migrants are less likely to settle in areas with a high proportion of migrants from other regions of origin. This is true for both recent and earlier migrants. Somewhat surprisingly, migrant networks have a greater impact on the settlement decisions for those from English-speaking regions than those from non-English-speaking regions.

Migrant mobility and long term absence

One measure of migrants' successful settlement and contribution to New Zealand is whether they remain in the country after their arrival or approval for residence. The Department of Labour has monitored the long-term absence of permanent migrants for several years.^[50]

Long-term absence refers to a permanent migrant who leaves New Zealand and is out of the country for 6 months or more. By taking a cohort approach, this research has shown that the rate of absence increases with the length of time since residence, with the earliest cohort having the highest rate of absence. Over time, approximately
20-25 percent of migrants granted permanent residence leave New Zealand long term.

Skilled/Business migrants have the highest rate of long-term absence, with approximately one-fifth leaving permanently over time. Absence rates are lowest for migrants approved for residence through the International/Humanitarian Stream.

In 2005, the Department of Labour undertook a detailed study of migrants' movement patterns in to and out of New Zealand.^[51] This study confirmed the consistent loss of permanent migrants from New Zealand, but also showed that most migrants are not highly mobile. Six main groups of migrants emerged based on their movement patterns (including length of absences and number of spells of absence). These broad categories are described in Table 22.

Table 22: Patterns of migrant mobility

Mobility pattern	Characteristics
Low mobility and lower absence	The majority of migrants were not highly mobile and did not spend lengthy periods absent.
Highly mobile and lower absence	Certain groups of migrants, for example, migrants from Japan and the United States, travel to and from New Zealand regularly, but, overall, were not highly represented in those spending lengthy periods absent.
Highly mobile and higher absence	Certain sub-groups were highlighted as being very mobile, as well as spending lengthy periods out of New Zealand. The top five long-term absence countries were Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Canada. These same countries were also among the main source countries of migrants to have five or more spells of absence over the analysis period.
Low mobility and higher absence	These migrants were not highly mobile, but often spent lengthy periods out of the country, for example secondary applicants from China.
Spend all time in New Zealand	Some groups of migrants were highly represented in the proportion spending no time out of the country, for example Refugee Quota and Pacific Access Category migrants.
Non-arrivers	A small proportion of those approved each year did not arrive to take up residence.

Migrants leave New Zealand for different reasons, only some of which relate to 'unsuccessful' settlement. Research has shown that some permanent migrants report dissatisfaction with high tax rates, the tax system, the distance from New Zealand to their home country or family, and the cost of health services.^[52] This same research has shown that some permanent residents do not intend to stay in New Zealand permanently from the outset.

Although it is too soon to gauge the full extent of the impact the global economic slowdown has had on the long-term absence rates of permanent migrants, research shows many factors ultimately determine whether migrants leave New Zealand. The loss of permanent residents needs to be considered in the context of continual gain of new skilled residents, returning New Zealanders, and migration gain through temporary flows.

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