External permanent and long-term migration factsheet[1] - June 2012
- Monthly net migration rose to a 16-month high (a seasonally adjusted net gain of 500).
- There was a net annual PLT migration loss of 3,200 people in the year to June 2012.
- Annual net migration is forecast to return to a net gain by 2013.
Figure 1: Monthly net PLT migration
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Figure 2: Annual net PLT migration
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Monthly net migration increased to a 16-month high
There was a net gain of 500 people in June 2012 (seasonally adjusted), the highest since February 2011. This was the second consecutive month of net migration gain (see Figure 1). The increase over the month was due to an increase of arrivals (up by 8.4%, or 600 people). Departures from the greater Christchurch area (Christchurch City, Selwyn District and Waimakariri District) have been gradually falling over the year to 500 in June. This is similar to the level before the September 2010 earthquake (seasonally adjusted by the Ministry).
Annually, net migration loss continued, driven by rising departures
There were 84,400 arrivals and 87,600 departures over the year to June 2012, resulting in a net loss of 3,200 people (see Figure 2). There has been an annual net loss since the year to October 2011. The net loss over the year to June 2012 was driven by rising PLT departures (up by 9.3%, or 7,400 people). A total of 62,100 New Zealand citizens left the country on a PLT basis over the year to June 2012, up from 53,700 a year ago (an increase of 15.6%). This was the highest level for a June year in the past decade.
Australia remains the most common destination for departing New Zealand citizens with 48,600 departing across the Tasman over the year to June 2012, up 21.8% (from 39,900) a year ago. An additional 5,100 non-New Zealand citizens (who had been living in New Zealand for the past year) also departed to Australia, bringing total departures to 53,800 and total net loss migration to Australia to 39,800.
PLT migration is forecast to return to a net gain by 2013
The Ministry forecasts PLT departures to Australia to ease in the latter part of 2012. Arrivals from the rest of the world (excluding Australia) are forecast to increase over the next year. Annual net PLT migration is expected to return to a net gain of about 4,900 in the year to March 2013.
[1] Migration data is sourced from Statistics New Zealand. Unless otherwise specified, all data refers to permanent and long-term (PLT, i.e. 12 months or more) migration and is rounded to the nearest 100.
