External permanent and long-term migration factsheet[1] - May 2012
- There was a net annual PLT migration loss of 3,700 people in the year to May 2012.
- There was a seasonally adjusted net gain of 200 people this month.
- Annual net migration is forecast to return to a net gain by 2013.
Figure 1: Annual net PLT migration
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Figure 2: Monthly net PLT migration
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Annual net migration loss continues, driven by rising departures…
There were 83,800 arrivals and 87,400 departures over the year to May 2012, resulting in a net loss of 3,700 people (see Figure 1). There has been an annual net loss since the year to October 2011. The net loss over the year to May 2012 was driven by rising PLT departures (up by 10.5%, or 8,300 people). A total of 61,800 New Zealand citizens left the country, up from 52,700 a year ago (up by 17.5%).
Australia remains the most common destination for departing New Zealand citizens with 48,200 departing for Australia over the year to May 2012, up from 38,900 a year ago (up by 24.0%). An additional 5,100 non-New Zealand citizens (who had been living in New Zealand for the past year) also departed to Australia, bringing total departures to 53,400 and total net loss migration to Australia to 39,600.
Monthly net migration increased and departures from Christchurch have been gradually falling
There was a net gain of 200 people in May 2012 (seasonally adjusted), up from a net loss of 800 people last month (see Figure 2). Seasonally adjusted (by the Department of Labour) departures from the greater Christchurch area (Christchurch City, Selwyn District and Waimakariri District) were 600, and have been trending down over the past eight months. They now sit slightly above the monthly average for the year before the September 2010 earthquake (500).
PLT migration is forecast to return to a net gain by 2013
The Department of Labour forecasts PLT departures to Australia to ease in the latter part of 2012. Arrivals from the rest of the world (excluding Australia) are forecast to increase over the next year. Annual net PLT migration is expected to return to a net gain of about 4,900 in the March 2013 year, as New Zealand’s economy continues to recover.
[1] Migration data is sourced from Statistics New Zealand. Unless otherwise specified, all data refers to permanent and long-term (PLT, i.e. 12 months or more) migration and is rounded to the nearest 100.
